Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.6237 |
Climate change projections for olive yields in the Mediterranean Basin | |
Fraga, Helder1,2; Pinto, Joaquim G.2; Viola, Francesco3; Santos, Joao A.1 | |
2019-07-31 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Portugal; Germany; Italy |
英文摘要 | The olive tree is one of the most important crops in the Mediterranean basin. Given the strong climatic influence on olive trees, it becomes imperative to assess climate change impacts on this crop. Herein, these impacts were innovatively assessed, based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, future scenarios and dynamic crop models. The recent-past (1989-2005) and future (2041-2070, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) olive growing season length (GSL), yield, growing season temperature (GST) and precipitation (GSP), potential (ETP) and actual (ETA) evapotranspiration, water demand (WD) and water productivity (WP) were assessed over Southern Europe. Crop models were fed with an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX regional climate model data, along with soil and terrain data. For the recent-past, important differences between western and eastern olive growing areas are found. GSL presents a strong latitudinal gradient, with higher/lower values at lower/higher latitudes. Yields are lower in inner south Iberia and higher in Italy and Greece, which is corroborated by historical data. Southern Iberia shows higher GST and lower GSP, which contributes to a higher ETP, lower ETA and, consequently, stronger WD. Regarding WP, the recent-past values show similar ranges across Europe. Future projections point to a general increase in GSL along with an increase in GST up to 3 degrees C. GSP is projected to decrease in Western Europe, leading to enhanced WD and consequently a yield decrease (down to -45%). Over eastern European, GSP is projected to slightly increase, leading to lower WD and to a small yield increase (up to +15%). WP will remain mostly unchanged. We conclude that climate change may negatively impact the viability of olive orchards in southern Iberia and some parts of Italy. Thus, adequate and timely planning of suitable adaptation measures are needed to ensure the sustainability of the olive sector. |
英文关键词 | climate change Euro-Cordex Europe olive yields representative concentration pathways |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000481348900001 |
WOS关键词 | OLEA-EUROPAEA L. ; TREES ; CROP ; FUTURE ; MODEL ; WATER ; OIL ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; CULTIVARS ; INDICATOR |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185365 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Tras Os Montes & Alto Douro UTAD, Ctr Res & Technol Agroenvironm & Biol Sci CITAB, Vila Real, Portugal; 2.KIT, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res IMK TRO, Karlsruhe, Germany; 3.Univ Cagliari, Dept Civil Environm & Architectural Engn, Cagliari, Italy |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fraga, Helder,Pinto, Joaquim G.,Viola, Francesco,et al. Climate change projections for olive yields in the Mediterranean Basin[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Fraga, Helder,Pinto, Joaquim G.,Viola, Francesco,&Santos, Joao A..(2019).Climate change projections for olive yields in the Mediterranean Basin.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
MLA | Fraga, Helder,et al."Climate change projections for olive yields in the Mediterranean Basin".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019). |
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