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DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.12.020 |
Measuring oil supply disruptions: A historical perspective | |
Huntington, Hillard G. | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 115页码:426-433 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | An oil supply disruption in OPEC member countries or in the Persian Gulf region may have unusually large effects on crude oil prices because such a disruption may escalate into wider disruptions within these volatile regions. This analysis reviews and updates several past studies to identify specific events that can be linked to oil supply shocks that remove oil production while increasing world oil prices. Using historical data, it finds that a 10% cut in world oil supplies arising from abrupt and large monthly disruptions of OPEC and Persian Gulf crude oil production correlates with a 35-43% increase in inflation-adjusted crude oil prices. The data also reveal that almost all sudden and large oil supply disruptions occurred prior to 2004, which raises some interesting issues about how to interpret the evidence from studies evaluating the impact of future oil disruptions on either prices or the economy. |
英文关键词 | Oil markets Supply disruptions |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428099800042 |
WOS关键词 | CRUDE-OIL ; SECURITY ; DEMAND ; ENERGY ; MARKET ; PRICE ; MODEL ; SHOCK |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/18545 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Stanford Univ, Energy Modeling Forum, 475 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huntington, Hillard G.. Measuring oil supply disruptions: A historical perspective[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,115:426-433. |
APA | Huntington, Hillard G..(2018).Measuring oil supply disruptions: A historical perspective.ENERGY POLICY,115,426-433. |
MLA | Huntington, Hillard G.."Measuring oil supply disruptions: A historical perspective".ENERGY POLICY 115(2018):426-433. |
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