Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL083395 |
Hindcasting Magma Reservoir Stability Preceding the 2008 Eruption of Okmok,Alaska | |
Albright, J. A.1; Gregg, P. M.1; Luz, Z.2; Freymueller, J. T.3 | |
2019-08-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:15页码:8801-8808 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Volcanic eruptions pose a significant and sometimes unpredictable hazard, especially at systems that display little to no precursory signals. For example, the 2008 eruption of Okmok volcano in Alaska notably lacked observable short-term precursors despite years of low-level unrest. This unpredictability highlights that direct monitoring alone is not always enough to reliably forecast eruptions. In this study, we use the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to produce a successful hindcast of the Okmok magma system in the lead up to its 2008 eruption. By assimilating geodetic observations of ground deformation, finite element models track the evolving stress state of the magma system and evaluate its stability using mechanical failure criteria. The hindcast successfully indicates an increased eruption likelihood due to tensile failure weeks in advance of the 2008 eruption. The effectiveness of this hindcast illustrates that EnKF-based forecasting methods may provide critical information on eruption probability in systems lacking obvious precursors. Plain Language Summary Volcano monitoring agencies routinely use increases in volcanic unrest as indicators of the potential for eruption. However, for some eruptions, such as the 2008 eruption of Okmok volcano in Alaska, these behaviors can be subtle or missing altogether. In this study, a new statistics-based volcano forecasting approach is used to test whether computer models are able to capture an increase in eruption likelihood leading up to the 2008 event. The models indicate that Okmok was trending toward eruption weeks in advance due to the increased probability of failure of the magma chamber. This successful test indicates that stress around the magma chamber is a strong predictor of volcano stability and that this method could apply to active volcanic systems and improve hazard mitigation efforts. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000483812500023 |
WOS关键词 | DATA ASSIMILATION ; OKMOK VOLCANO ; ALEUTIAN ARC ; DEFORMATION ; MODEL ; INFLATION ; FAILURE ; CALDERA ; STRESS ; TIME |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186029 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Illinois, Dept Geol, Champaign, IL 61820 USA; 2.Southern Methodist Univ, Huffington Dept Earth Sci, Dallas, TX USA; 3.Michigan State Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Lansing, MI USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Albright, J. A.,Gregg, P. M.,Luz, Z.,et al. Hindcasting Magma Reservoir Stability Preceding the 2008 Eruption of Okmok,Alaska[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(15):8801-8808. |
APA | Albright, J. A.,Gregg, P. M.,Luz, Z.,&Freymueller, J. T..(2019).Hindcasting Magma Reservoir Stability Preceding the 2008 Eruption of Okmok,Alaska.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(15),8801-8808. |
MLA | Albright, J. A.,et al."Hindcasting Magma Reservoir Stability Preceding the 2008 Eruption of Okmok,Alaska".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.15(2019):8801-8808. |
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