资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Using the Atlantic Hurricane Database (HURDAT2) and the General Bathymetry Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO-2014), the probability of tropical cyclones of various intensities (hurricane, tropical storm, or a tropical depression) making landfall through the Lesser Antilles (i.e., the Windward and Leeward Islands-from 12.5 degrees N to 17.5 degrees N and 59.0 degrees W to 63.0 degrees W) from 1991 to 2016 was evaluated. HURDAT2 data from 1979 to 2016 also were used to assess storm location, maximum sustained winds, and minimum central pressure as they passed through the Lesser Antilles. In this region, tropical depressions generally did not intensify with respect to maximum sustained wind speeds and only one intensified with respect to a drop in its central pressure. By contrast, hurricanes were more likely to show intensification with respect to maximum sustained wind speed and central pressure. Tropical storms were equally likely to intensify or dissipate. Also, the data indicate that with the passage of a hurricane, maximum sustained winds were less likely to increase despite a drop in the central pressure. For tropical storms and particularly with tropical depressions, the effect of the islands is more pronounced.