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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0249.1 |
South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability | |
Lou, Jiale1; 39;Kane, Terence J.2 | |
2019-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:18页码:6051-6069 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | The South Pacific decadal oscillation (SPDO) characterizes the Southern Hemisphere contribution to the Pacific-wide interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and is analogous to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) centered in the North Pacific. In this study, upper ocean variability and potential predictability of the SPDO is examined in HadISST data and an atmosphere-forced ocean general circulation model. The potential predictability of the IPO-related variability is investigated in terms of both the fractional contribution made by the decadal component in the South, tropical and North Pacific Oceans and in terms of a doubly integrated first-order autoregressive (AR1) model. Despite explaining a smaller fraction of the total variance, we find larger potential predictability of the SPDO relative to the PDO. We identify distinct local drivers in the western subtropical South Pacific, where nonlinear baroclinic Rossby wave-topographic interactions act to low-pass filter decadal variability. In particular, we show that the Kermadec Ridge in the southwest Pacific enhances the decadal signature more prominently than anywhere else in the Pacific basin. Applying the doubly integrated AR1 model, we demonstrate that variability associated with the Pacific-South American pattern is a critically important atmospheric driver of the SPDO via a reddening process analogous to the relationship between the Aleutian low and PDO in the North Pacific-albeit that the relationship in the South Pacific appears to be even stronger. Our results point to the largely unrecognized importance of South Pacific processes as a key source of decadal variability and predictability. |
英文关键词 | Climate variability Decadal variability Interdecadal variability Oceanic variability Oscillations Pacific decadal oscillation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000481822600005 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; SUBTROPICAL COUNTERCURRENT ; PART I ; OCEAN ; ENSO ; CIRCULATION ; HEMISPHERE ; LEVEL ; ANOMALIES ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186783 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Tasmania, Inst Marine & Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tas, Australia; 2.Univ Tasmania, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Hobart, Tas, Australia; 3.Univ Tasmania, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Hobart, Tas, Australia; 4.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lou, Jiale,39;Kane, Terence J.. South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(18):6051-6069. |
APA | Lou, Jiale,&39;Kane, Terence J..(2019).South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(18),6051-6069. |
MLA | Lou, Jiale,et al."South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.18(2019):6051-6069. |
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