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DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0249.1
South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability
Lou, Jiale1; 39;Kane, Terence J.2
2019-09-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2019
卷号32期号:18页码:6051-6069
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia
英文摘要

The South Pacific decadal oscillation (SPDO) characterizes the Southern Hemisphere contribution to the Pacific-wide interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and is analogous to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) centered in the North Pacific. In this study, upper ocean variability and potential predictability of the SPDO is examined in HadISST data and an atmosphere-forced ocean general circulation model. The potential predictability of the IPO-related variability is investigated in terms of both the fractional contribution made by the decadal component in the South, tropical and North Pacific Oceans and in terms of a doubly integrated first-order autoregressive (AR1) model. Despite explaining a smaller fraction of the total variance, we find larger potential predictability of the SPDO relative to the PDO. We identify distinct local drivers in the western subtropical South Pacific, where nonlinear baroclinic Rossby wave-topographic interactions act to low-pass filter decadal variability. In particular, we show that the Kermadec Ridge in the southwest Pacific enhances the decadal signature more prominently than anywhere else in the Pacific basin. Applying the doubly integrated AR1 model, we demonstrate that variability associated with the Pacific-South American pattern is a critically important atmospheric driver of the SPDO via a reddening process analogous to the relationship between the Aleutian low and PDO in the North Pacific-albeit that the relationship in the South Pacific appears to be even stronger. Our results point to the largely unrecognized importance of South Pacific processes as a key source of decadal variability and predictability.


英文关键词Climate variability Decadal variability Interdecadal variability Oceanic variability Oscillations Pacific decadal oscillation
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000481822600005
WOS关键词SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; SUBTROPICAL COUNTERCURRENT ; PART I ; OCEAN ; ENSO ; CIRCULATION ; HEMISPHERE ; LEVEL ; ANOMALIES ; MODELS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186783
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Tasmania, Inst Marine & Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tas, Australia;
2.Univ Tasmania, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Hobart, Tas, Australia;
3.Univ Tasmania, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Hobart, Tas, Australia;
4.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas, Australia
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Lou, Jiale,39;Kane, Terence J.. South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(18):6051-6069.
APA Lou, Jiale,&39;Kane, Terence J..(2019).South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(18),6051-6069.
MLA Lou, Jiale,et al."South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.18(2019):6051-6069.
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