Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.6283 |
Historical and future storm surge around New Zealand: From the 19th century to the end of the 21st century | |
Cagigal, Laura1,2; Rueda, Ana2; Castanedo, Sonia2; Cid, Alba2; Perez, Jorge3; Stephens, Scott A.4; Coco, Giovanni1; Mendez, Fernando J.2 | |
2019-09-02 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | New Zealand; Spain |
英文摘要 | We developed a new hindcast for storm surge at a 0.25 degrees spatial scale for the whole New Zealand area using a statistical downscaling technique that links the mean local atmospheric conditions with the maximum storm surge levels at a daily scale. After validating the hindcast against sea level instrumental records from 17 tidal gauges around New Zealand, the same technique has been applied to obtain storm surge projections until 2,100 using different global climate models. The global climate models have been previously classified according to their ability to reproduce the past climatology in the studied area and seven models have been selected in order to explore their effect on storm surge projections. For the two representative Concentration Pathways studied, the projections indicate that the storm surge associated with the 50 years return period will increase in magnitude in the Southern areas while it will decrease in the Northern region. Even where a decreasing linear trend over the annual maxima is observed in the future time series, sporadic events of higher magnitude than the historical peaks can be. |
英文关键词 | global climate models multiple linear regression statistical downscaling storm surge weather types |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000484748300001 |
WOS关键词 | WAVE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS ; WEATHER PATTERNS ; REANALYSIS ; MODELS ; OCEAN ; CMIP5 ; PERFORMANCE ; WIND ; WELL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186920 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Auckland, Sch Environm, Auckland, New Zealand; 2.Univ Cantabria, ETSICCP, Dept Ciencias & Tecn Agua & Medio Ambiente, Surf & Surge Res Grp, Santander, Spain; 3.Meteorol Serv New Zealand Ltd MetServ, MetOcean Solut, Raglan, New Zealand; 4.Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res NIWA, Coastal & Estuarine Proc, Hamilton, New Zealand |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cagigal, Laura,Rueda, Ana,Castanedo, Sonia,et al. Historical and future storm surge around New Zealand: From the 19th century to the end of the 21st century[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Cagigal, Laura.,Rueda, Ana.,Castanedo, Sonia.,Cid, Alba.,Perez, Jorge.,...&Mendez, Fernando J..(2019).Historical and future storm surge around New Zealand: From the 19th century to the end of the 21st century.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
MLA | Cagigal, Laura,et al."Historical and future storm surge around New Zealand: From the 19th century to the end of the 21st century".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019). |
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