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DOI | 10.1038/s41558-019-0587-5 |
Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists' predictions | |
Howe, Lauren C.1; MacInnis, Bo2; Krosnick, Jon A.2,3,4; Markowitz, Ezra M.5; Socolow, Robert6 | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
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ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 9期号:11页码:863-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland; USA |
英文摘要 | Predictions about the effects of climate change cannot be made with complete certainty, so acknowledging uncertainty may increase trust in scientists and public acceptance of their messages. Here we show that this is true regarding expressions of uncertainty, unless they are also accompanied by acknowledgements of irreducible uncertainty. A representative national sample of Americans read predictions about effects of global warming on sea level that included either a worst-case scenario (high partially bounded uncertainty) or the best and worst cases (fully bounded uncertainty). Compared to a control condition, expressing fully bounded but not high partially bounded uncertainty increased trust in scientists and message acceptance. However, these effects were eliminated when fully bounded uncertainty was accompanied by an acknowledgement that the full effects of sea-level rise cannot be quantified because of unpredictable storm surges. Thus, expressions of fully bounded uncertainty alone may enhance confidence in scientists and their assertions but not when the full extent of inevitable uncertainty is acknowledged. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000493735100020 |
WOS关键词 | WEATHER FORECASTS ; DECISION-MAKING ; CONFIDENCE ; SCIENCE ; PERCEPTION ; RESPONSES ; TRUST |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188182 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Zurich, Dept Business Adm, Zurich, Switzerland; 2.Stanford Univ, Dept Commun, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; 3.Stanford Univ, Dept Polit Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; 4.Stanford Univ, Dept Psychol, Stanford, CA USA; 5.Univ Massachusetts, Dept Environm Conservat, Amherst, MA 01003 USA; 6.Princeton Univ, Dept Mech & Aerosp Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Howe, Lauren C.,MacInnis, Bo,Krosnick, Jon A.,et al. Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists' predictions[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019,9(11):863-+. |
APA | Howe, Lauren C.,MacInnis, Bo,Krosnick, Jon A.,Markowitz, Ezra M.,&Socolow, Robert.(2019).Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists' predictions.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,9(11),863-+. |
MLA | Howe, Lauren C.,et al."Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists' predictions".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 9.11(2019):863-+. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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