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DOI10.1038/s41558-019-0587-5
Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists' predictions
Howe, Lauren C.1; MacInnis, Bo2; Krosnick, Jon A.2,3,4; Markowitz, Ezra M.5; Socolow, Robert6
2019-11-01
发表期刊NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN1758-678X
EISSN1758-6798
出版年2019
卷号9期号:11页码:863-+
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Switzerland; USA
英文摘要

Predictions about the effects of climate change cannot be made with complete certainty, so acknowledging uncertainty may increase trust in scientists and public acceptance of their messages. Here we show that this is true regarding expressions of uncertainty, unless they are also accompanied by acknowledgements of irreducible uncertainty. A representative national sample of Americans read predictions about effects of global warming on sea level that included either a worst-case scenario (high partially bounded uncertainty) or the best and worst cases (fully bounded uncertainty). Compared to a control condition, expressing fully bounded but not high partially bounded uncertainty increased trust in scientists and message acceptance. However, these effects were eliminated when fully bounded uncertainty was accompanied by an acknowledgement that the full effects of sea-level rise cannot be quantified because of unpredictable storm surges. Thus, expressions of fully bounded uncertainty alone may enhance confidence in scientists and their assertions but not when the full extent of inevitable uncertainty is acknowledged.


领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000493735100020
WOS关键词WEATHER FORECASTS ; DECISION-MAKING ; CONFIDENCE ; SCIENCE ; PERCEPTION ; RESPONSES ; TRUST
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:64[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188182
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Zurich, Dept Business Adm, Zurich, Switzerland;
2.Stanford Univ, Dept Commun, Stanford, CA 94305 USA;
3.Stanford Univ, Dept Polit Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA;
4.Stanford Univ, Dept Psychol, Stanford, CA USA;
5.Univ Massachusetts, Dept Environm Conservat, Amherst, MA 01003 USA;
6.Princeton Univ, Dept Mech & Aerosp Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
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GB/T 7714
Howe, Lauren C.,MacInnis, Bo,Krosnick, Jon A.,et al. Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists' predictions[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019,9(11):863-+.
APA Howe, Lauren C.,MacInnis, Bo,Krosnick, Jon A.,Markowitz, Ezra M.,&Socolow, Robert.(2019).Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists' predictions.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,9(11),863-+.
MLA Howe, Lauren C.,et al."Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists' predictions".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 9.11(2019):863-+.
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