Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019WR024827 |
Using Physically Based Synthetic Peak Flows to Assess Local and Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Methods | |
Perez, Gabriel1; Mantilla, Ricardo1; Krajewski, Witold F.1; Wright, Daniel B.2 | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Although prior studies have evaluated the role of sampling errors associated with local and regional methods to estimate peak flow quantiles, the investigation of epistemic errors is more difficult because the underlying properties of the random variable have been prescribed using ad-hoc characterizations of the regional distributions of peak flows. This study addresses this challenge using representations of regional peak flow distributions derived from a combined framework of stochastic storm transposition, radar rainfall observations, and distributed hydrologic modeling. The authors evaluated four commonly used peak flow quantile estimation methods using synthetic peak flows at 5,000 sites in the Turkey River watershed in Iowa, USA. They first used at-site flood frequency analysis using the Pearson Type III distribution with L-moments. The authors then pooled regional information using (1) the index flood method, (2) the quantile regression technique, and (3) the parameter regression. This approach allowed quantification of error components stemming from epistemic assumptions, parameter estimation method, sample size, and, in the regional approaches, the number of pooled sites. The results demonstrate that the inability to capture the spatial variability of the skewness of the peak flows dominates epistemic error for regional methods. We concluded that, in the study basin, this variability could be partially explained by river network structure and the predominant orientation of the watershed. The general approach used in this study is promising in that it brings new tools and sources of data to the study of the old hydrologic problem of flood frequency analysis. |
英文关键词 | peak flow quantiles at-site flood frequency analysis regional flood frequency analysis Monte Carlo simulation epistemic error sampling error |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000493602100001 |
WOS关键词 | GENERALIZED LEAST-SQUARES ; HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS ; EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES ; SCALING EXPONENTS ; RAINFALL FIELDS ; INDEX-FLOOD ; RADAR ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; PREDICTION ; UNCERTAINTY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188200 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Iowa, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, IIHR Hydrosci & Engn, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA; 2.Univ Wisconsin, Coll Engn, Madison, WI USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Perez, Gabriel,Mantilla, Ricardo,Krajewski, Witold F.,et al. Using Physically Based Synthetic Peak Flows to Assess Local and Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Methods[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019. |
APA | Perez, Gabriel,Mantilla, Ricardo,Krajewski, Witold F.,&Wright, Daniel B..(2019).Using Physically Based Synthetic Peak Flows to Assess Local and Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Methods.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH. |
MLA | Perez, Gabriel,et al."Using Physically Based Synthetic Peak Flows to Assess Local and Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Methods".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH (2019). |
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