GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1029/2019WR024827
Using Physically Based Synthetic Peak Flows to Assess Local and Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Methods
Perez, Gabriel1; Mantilla, Ricardo1; Krajewski, Witold F.1; Wright, Daniel B.2
2019-11-01
发表期刊WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
ISSN0043-1397
EISSN1944-7973
出版年2019
文章类型Article;Early Access
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Although prior studies have evaluated the role of sampling errors associated with local and regional methods to estimate peak flow quantiles, the investigation of epistemic errors is more difficult because the underlying properties of the random variable have been prescribed using ad-hoc characterizations of the regional distributions of peak flows. This study addresses this challenge using representations of regional peak flow distributions derived from a combined framework of stochastic storm transposition, radar rainfall observations, and distributed hydrologic modeling. The authors evaluated four commonly used peak flow quantile estimation methods using synthetic peak flows at 5,000 sites in the Turkey River watershed in Iowa, USA. They first used at-site flood frequency analysis using the Pearson Type III distribution with L-moments. The authors then pooled regional information using (1) the index flood method, (2) the quantile regression technique, and (3) the parameter regression. This approach allowed quantification of error components stemming from epistemic assumptions, parameter estimation method, sample size, and, in the regional approaches, the number of pooled sites. The results demonstrate that the inability to capture the spatial variability of the skewness of the peak flows dominates epistemic error for regional methods. We concluded that, in the study basin, this variability could be partially explained by river network structure and the predominant orientation of the watershed. The general approach used in this study is promising in that it brings new tools and sources of data to the study of the old hydrologic problem of flood frequency analysis.


英文关键词peak flow quantiles at-site flood frequency analysis regional flood frequency analysis Monte Carlo simulation epistemic error sampling error
领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000493602100001
WOS关键词GENERALIZED LEAST-SQUARES ; HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS ; EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES ; SCALING EXPONENTS ; RAINFALL FIELDS ; INDEX-FLOOD ; RADAR ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; PREDICTION ; UNCERTAINTY
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188200
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Iowa, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, IIHR Hydrosci & Engn, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA;
2.Univ Wisconsin, Coll Engn, Madison, WI USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Perez, Gabriel,Mantilla, Ricardo,Krajewski, Witold F.,et al. Using Physically Based Synthetic Peak Flows to Assess Local and Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Methods[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019.
APA Perez, Gabriel,Mantilla, Ricardo,Krajewski, Witold F.,&Wright, Daniel B..(2019).Using Physically Based Synthetic Peak Flows to Assess Local and Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Methods.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH.
MLA Perez, Gabriel,et al."Using Physically Based Synthetic Peak Flows to Assess Local and Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Methods".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH (2019).
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