GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2019GL085270
A Priori Identification of Skillful Extratropical Subseasonal Forecasts
Albers, John R.1,2; Newman, Matthew1,2
2019-11-06
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2019
文章类型Article;Early Access
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

The current generation of subseasonal operational model forecasts has, on average, low skill for leads beyond 3 weeks. This is likely a fundamental property of the climate system, due to the relative high amplitude of unpredictable weather variability compared to potentially predictable, but generally weaker, climate signals. Thus, for subseasonal forecasts to be useful, their high versus low skill events should be identified at time of forecast. We show that a linear inverse model (LIM), an empirical-dynamical model constructed from covariability statistics of wintertime (December-March) weekly averaged observational analyses, can be used to identify, a priori, the expected extratropical subseasonal surface and midtropospheric forecast skill. The LIM's predicted signal-to-noise ratio identifies the subset (10%-30%) of Weeks 3-6 forecasts-of the LIM and two operational models from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-with relatively higher skill versus the much larger remainder of forecasts whose skill cannot be distinguished from random chance.


英文关键词Linear inverse model Predictability Subseasonal
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000494586700001
WOS关键词MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; ENSEMBLE SPREAD ; PART I ; PREDICTABILITY ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; PREDICTION ; ERROR ; MODEL ; SYSTEMS
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188256
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA;
2.NOAA, Phys Sci Div, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Albers, John R.,Newman, Matthew. A Priori Identification of Skillful Extratropical Subseasonal Forecasts[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019.
APA Albers, John R.,&Newman, Matthew.(2019).A Priori Identification of Skillful Extratropical Subseasonal Forecasts.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS.
MLA Albers, John R.,et al."A Priori Identification of Skillful Extratropical Subseasonal Forecasts".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019).
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