Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL085270 |
A Priori Identification of Skillful Extratropical Subseasonal Forecasts | |
Albers, John R.1,2; Newman, Matthew1,2 | |
2019-11-06 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The current generation of subseasonal operational model forecasts has, on average, low skill for leads beyond 3 weeks. This is likely a fundamental property of the climate system, due to the relative high amplitude of unpredictable weather variability compared to potentially predictable, but generally weaker, climate signals. Thus, for subseasonal forecasts to be useful, their high versus low skill events should be identified at time of forecast. We show that a linear inverse model (LIM), an empirical-dynamical model constructed from covariability statistics of wintertime (December-March) weekly averaged observational analyses, can be used to identify, a priori, the expected extratropical subseasonal surface and midtropospheric forecast skill. The LIM's predicted signal-to-noise ratio identifies the subset (10%-30%) of Weeks 3-6 forecasts-of the LIM and two operational models from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-with relatively higher skill versus the much larger remainder of forecasts whose skill cannot be distinguished from random chance. |
英文关键词 | Linear inverse model Predictability Subseasonal |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000494586700001 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; ENSEMBLE SPREAD ; PART I ; PREDICTABILITY ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; PREDICTION ; ERROR ; MODEL ; SYSTEMS |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188256 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 2.NOAA, Phys Sci Div, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Albers, John R.,Newman, Matthew. A Priori Identification of Skillful Extratropical Subseasonal Forecasts[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019. |
APA | Albers, John R.,&Newman, Matthew.(2019).A Priori Identification of Skillful Extratropical Subseasonal Forecasts.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS. |
MLA | Albers, John R.,et al."A Priori Identification of Skillful Extratropical Subseasonal Forecasts".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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