Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0283.1 |
Decadal Variability of Great Lakes Ice Cover in Response to AMO and PDO, 1963-2017 | |
Wang, Jia1; Kessler, James2; Bai, Xuezhi3; Clites, Anne1; Lofgren, Brent1; Assuncao, Alexandre2; Bratton, John4; Chu, Philip1; Leshkevich, George1 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:18页码:7249-7268 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | In this study, decadal variability of ice cover in the Great Lakes is investigated using historical airborne and satellite measurements from 1963 to 2017. It was found that Great Lakes ice cover has 1) a linear relationship with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), similar to the relationship of lake ice cover with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but with stronger impact than NAO; 2) a quadratic relationship with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), which is similar to the relationship of lake ice cover to Nino-3.4, but with opposite curvature; and 3) decadal variability with a positive (warming) trend in AMO contributes to the decreasing trend in lake ice cover. Composite analyses show that during the positive (negative) phase of AMO, the Great Lakes experience a warm (cold) anomaly in surface air temperature (SAT) and lake surface temperature (LST), leading to less (more) ice cover. During the positive (negative) phase of PDO, the Great Lakes experience a cold (warm) anomaly in SAT and LST, leading to more (less) ice cover. Based on these statistical relationships, the original multiple variable regression model established using the indices of NAO and Nino-3.4 only was improved by adding both AMO and PDO, as well as their interference (interacting or competing) mechanism. With the AMO and PDO added, the correlation between the model and observation increases to 0.69, compared to 0.48 using NAO and Nino-3.4 only. When November lake surface temperature was further added to the regression model, the prediction skill of the coming winter ice cover increased even more. |
英文关键词 | North America Climate variability Ice loss growth Regression analysis Decadal variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000440402800006 |
WOS关键词 | NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE ; CLIMATE ; TEMPERATURE ; TRENDS ; WINTER ; TELECONNECTIONS ; OSCILLATION ; ATLANTIC ; PATTERNS ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19400 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.NOAA, Great Lakes Environm Res Lab, 2205 Commonwealth Blvd, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 USA; 2.Univ Michigan, Cooperat Inst Great Lakes Res, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA; 3.Hohai Univ, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 4.LimnoTech, Ann Arbor, MI USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Jia,Kessler, James,Bai, Xuezhi,et al. Decadal Variability of Great Lakes Ice Cover in Response to AMO and PDO, 1963-2017[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(18):7249-7268. |
APA | Wang, Jia.,Kessler, James.,Bai, Xuezhi.,Clites, Anne.,Lofgren, Brent.,...&Leshkevich, George.(2018).Decadal Variability of Great Lakes Ice Cover in Response to AMO and PDO, 1963-2017.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(18),7249-7268. |
MLA | Wang, Jia,et al."Decadal Variability of Great Lakes Ice Cover in Response to AMO and PDO, 1963-2017".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.18(2018):7249-7268. |
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