GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0721.1
Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness under Contemporary and Projected Climate in the Northern Hemisphere
Peng, Xiaoqing1; Zhang, Tingjun1; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.2; Wang, Kang3; Luo, Dongliang4; Cao, Bin1; Su, Hang1; Jin, Huijun4; Wu, Qingbai4
2018
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:1页码:251-266
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China; USA
英文摘要

Variability of active layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions is critical for assessments of climate change, water resources, and engineering applications. Detailed knowledge of ALT variations is also important for studies on ecosystem, hydrological, and geomorphological processes in cold regions. The primary objective of this study is therefore to provide a comprehensive 1971-2000 climatology of ALT and its changes across the entire Northern Hemisphere from 1850 through 2100. To accomplish this, in situ observations, the Stefan solution based on a thawing index, and the edaphic factor (E factor) are employed to calculate ALT. The thawing index is derived from (i) the multimodel ensemble mean of 16 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over 1850-2005, (ii) three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) for 2006-2100, and (iii) Climatic Research Unit (CRU) gridded observations for 1901-2014. The results show significant spatial variability in in situ ALT that generally ranges from 40 to 320 cm, with some extreme values of 900 cm in the Alps. The differences in the ALT climatology between the three RCPs and the historical experiments ranged from 0 to 200 cm. The biggest increases, of 120-200 cm, are on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, while the smallest increases of less than 20 cm are in Alaska. Averaged over all permafrost regions, mean ALT from CMIP5 increased significantly at 0.57 +/- 0.04 cm decade(-1) during 1850-2005, while 2006-2100 projections show ALT increases of 0.77 +/- 0.08 cm decade(-1) for RCP2.6, 2.56 +/- 0.07 cm decade(-1) for RCP4.5, and 6.51 +/- 0.07 cm decade(-1) for RCP8.5.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000429528800014
WOS关键词SEASONAL SNOW COVER ; HEIHE RIVER-BASIN ; THERMAL REGIME ; SEA-ICE ; PERMAFROST ; CMIP5 ; LAND ; THAW ; TEMPERATURES ; MOUNTAIN
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20210
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth & Environm Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Western Chinas Environm Syst, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;
2.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Geog, College Stn, TX USA;
3.Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA;
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Frozen Soil Engn, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Peng, Xiaoqing,Zhang, Tingjun,Frauenfeld, Oliver W.,et al. Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness under Contemporary and Projected Climate in the Northern Hemisphere[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(1):251-266.
APA Peng, Xiaoqing.,Zhang, Tingjun.,Frauenfeld, Oliver W..,Wang, Kang.,Luo, Dongliang.,...&Wu, Qingbai.(2018).Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness under Contemporary and Projected Climate in the Northern Hemisphere.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(1),251-266.
MLA Peng, Xiaoqing,et al."Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness under Contemporary and Projected Climate in the Northern Hemisphere".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.1(2018):251-266.
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