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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0323.1 |
Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model | |
Sevellec, Florian1; Fedorov, Alexey V.2 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; USA |
英文摘要 | This study investigates the excitation of decadal variability and predictability of the ocean climate state in the North Atlantic. Specifically, initial linear optimal perturbations (LOPs) in temperature and salinity that vary with depth, longitude, and latitude are computed, and the maximum impact on the ocean of these perturbations is evaluated in a realistic ocean general circulation model. The computations of the LOPs involve a maximization procedure based on Lagrange multipliers in a nonautonomous context. To assess the impact of these perturbations four different measures of the North Atlantic Ocean state are used: meridional volume and heat transports (MVT and MHT) and spatially averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC). It is shown that these metrics are dramatically different with regard to predictability. Whereas OHC and SST can be efficiently modified only by basin-scale anomalies, MVT and MHT are also strongly affected by smaller-scale perturbations. This suggests that instantaneous or even annual-mean values of MVT and MHT are less predictable than SST and OHC. Only when averaged over several decades do the former two metrics have predictability comparable to the latter two, which highlights the need for long-term observations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in order to accumulate climatically relevant data. This study also suggests that initial errors in ocean temperature of a few millikelvins, encompassing both the upper and deep ocean, can lead to; 0.1-K errors in the predictions of North Atlantic sea surface temperature on interannual time scales. This transient error growth peaks for SST and OHC after about 6 and 10 years, respectively, implying a potential predictability barrier. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000391856300003 |
WOS关键词 | MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION ; GLOBAL OCEAN ; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION ; MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY ; STABILITY ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE MODELS ; CMIP5 ; TEMPERATURE ; VECTORS ; DESIGN |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20341 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Southampton, Ocean & Earth Sci, Waterfront Campus,European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England; 2.Yale Univ, Dept Geol & Geophys, New Haven, CT USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sevellec, Florian,Fedorov, Alexey V.. Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(2). |
APA | Sevellec, Florian,&Fedorov, Alexey V..(2017).Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(2). |
MLA | Sevellec, Florian,et al."Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.2(2017). |
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