GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0323.1
Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model
Sevellec, Florian1; Fedorov, Alexey V.2
2017
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2017
卷号30期号:2
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England; USA
英文摘要

This study investigates the excitation of decadal variability and predictability of the ocean climate state in the North Atlantic. Specifically, initial linear optimal perturbations (LOPs) in temperature and salinity that vary with depth, longitude, and latitude are computed, and the maximum impact on the ocean of these perturbations is evaluated in a realistic ocean general circulation model. The computations of the LOPs involve a maximization procedure based on Lagrange multipliers in a nonautonomous context. To assess the impact of these perturbations four different measures of the North Atlantic Ocean state are used: meridional volume and heat transports (MVT and MHT) and spatially averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC). It is shown that these metrics are dramatically different with regard to predictability. Whereas OHC and SST can be efficiently modified only by basin-scale anomalies, MVT and MHT are also strongly affected by smaller-scale perturbations. This suggests that instantaneous or even annual-mean values of MVT and MHT are less predictable than SST and OHC. Only when averaged over several decades do the former two metrics have predictability comparable to the latter two, which highlights the need for long-term observations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in order to accumulate climatically relevant data. This study also suggests that initial errors in ocean temperature of a few millikelvins, encompassing both the upper and deep ocean, can lead to; 0.1-K errors in the predictions of North Atlantic sea surface temperature on interannual time scales. This transient error growth peaks for SST and OHC after about 6 and 10 years, respectively, implying a potential predictability barrier.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000391856300003
WOS关键词MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION ; GLOBAL OCEAN ; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION ; MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY ; STABILITY ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE MODELS ; CMIP5 ; TEMPERATURE ; VECTORS ; DESIGN
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:8[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20341
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Southampton, Ocean & Earth Sci, Waterfront Campus,European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England;
2.Yale Univ, Dept Geol & Geophys, New Haven, CT USA
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GB/T 7714
Sevellec, Florian,Fedorov, Alexey V.. Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(2).
APA Sevellec, Florian,&Fedorov, Alexey V..(2017).Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(2).
MLA Sevellec, Florian,et al."Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.2(2017).
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