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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0053.1 |
The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors | |
White, Ian1; Garfinkel, Chaim I.1; Gerber, Edwin P.2; Jucker, Martin3; Aquila, Valentina4; Oman, Luke D.5 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:1页码:85-108 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Israel; USA; Australia |
英文摘要 | Tropospheric features preceding sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) are identified using a large compendium of events obtained from a chemistry-climate model. In agreement with recent observational studies, it is found that approximately one-third of SSWs are preceded by extreme episodes of wave activity in the lower troposphere. The relationship becomes stronger in the lower stratosphere, where similar to 60% of SSWs are preceded by extreme wave activity at 100 hPa. Additional analysis characterizes events that do or do not appear to subsequently impact the troposphere, referred to as downward and non-downward propagating SSWs, respectively. On average, tropospheric wave activity is larger preceding downward-propagating SSWs compared to non-downward propagating events, and associated in particular with a doubly strengthened Siberian high. Of the SSWs that were preceded by extreme lower-tropospheric wave activity, similar to 2/3 propagated down to the troposphere, and hence the presence of extreme lower-tropospheric wave activity can only be used probabilistically to predict a slight increase or decrease at the onset, of the likelihood of tropospheric impacts to follow. However, a large number of downward and non-downward propagating SSWs must be considered (>35), before the difference becomes statistically significant. The precursors are also robust upon comparison with composites consisting of randomly selected tropospheric northern annular mode (NAM) events. The downward influence and precursors to split and displacement events are also examined. It is found that anomalous upward wave-1 fluxes precede both cases. Splits exhibit a near instantaneous, barotropic response in the stratosphere and troposphere, while displacements have a stronger long-term influence. |
英文关键词 | Annular mode Stratosphere-troposphere coupling Climate variability Arctic Oscillation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000452132400006 |
WOS关键词 | POLAR VORTEX ; PROPAGATION ; WEATHER ; EVENTS ; DISPLACEMENTS ; SPLITS ; WAVES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20347 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Inst Earth Sci, Edmond J Safra Campus, Jerusalem, Israel; 2.NYU, Courant Inst Math Sci, New York, NY USA; 3.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Parkville, Vic, Australia; 4.Amer Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Washington, DC 20016 USA; 5.NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | White, Ian,Garfinkel, Chaim I.,Gerber, Edwin P.,et al. The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(1):85-108. |
APA | White, Ian,Garfinkel, Chaim I.,Gerber, Edwin P.,Jucker, Martin,Aquila, Valentina,&Oman, Luke D..(2019).The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(1),85-108. |
MLA | White, Ian,et al."The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.1(2019):85-108. |
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