GSTDTAP  > 地球科学
DOI10.1073/pnas.1618082114
Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.1,2; Singh, Deepti1,3; Mankin, Justin S.1,3,4,5; Horton, Daniel E.1,6; Swain, Daniel L.1,7; Touma, Danielle1; Charland, Allison1; Liu, Yunjie1; Haugen, Matz1; Tsiang, Michael1,8; Rajaratnam, Bala1,2,9
2017-05-09
发表期刊PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
ISSN0027-8424
出版年2017
卷号114期号:19页码:4881-4886
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at > 80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year andwettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.


英文关键词event attribution climate extremes climate change global warming
领域地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000400818400030
WOS关键词ANTHROPOGENIC CONTRIBUTION ; ATTRIBUTION ; TEMPERATURE ; PRECIPITATION ; WEATHER ; VARIABILITY ; DROUGHT ; CONTEXT ; CMIP5 ; HEAT
WOS类目Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204701
专题地球科学
资源环境科学
气候变化
作者单位1.Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA;
2.Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA;
3.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA;
4.Stanford Univ, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program Environm & Resou, Stanford, CA 94305 USA;
5.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA;
6.Northwestern Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Evanston, IL 60208 USA;
7.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA;
8.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Stat, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA;
9.Stanford Univ, Dept Stat, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
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GB/T 7714
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.,Singh, Deepti,Mankin, Justin S.,et al. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2017,114(19):4881-4886.
APA Diffenbaugh, Noah S..,Singh, Deepti.,Mankin, Justin S..,Horton, Daniel E..,Swain, Daniel L..,...&Rajaratnam, Bala.(2017).Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,114(19),4881-4886.
MLA Diffenbaugh, Noah S.,et al."Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114.19(2017):4881-4886.
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