Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1073/pnas.1713146114 |
Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring | |
Osso, Albert; Sutton, Rowan; Shaffrey, Len; Dong, Buwen | |
2018-01-02 | |
发表期刊 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA |
ISSN | 0027-8424 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 115期号:1页码:59-63 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, seasonal dynamical model forecasts for European summers have very little skill, particularly for rainfall. It has not been clear whether this low skill reflects inherent unpredictability of summer weather or, alternatively, is a consequence of weaknesses in current forecast systems. Here we analyze atmosphere and ocean observations and identify evidence that a specific pattern of summertime atmospheric circulation-the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern-is predictable from the previous spring. An index of North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in March-April can predict the SEA pattern in July-August with a cross-validated correlation skill above 0.6. Our analyses show that the sea-surface temperatures influence atmospheric circulation and the position of the jet stream over the North Atlantic. The SEA pattern has a particularly strong influence on rainfall in the British Isles, which we find can also be predicted months ahead with a significant skill of 0.56. Our results have immediate application to empirical forecasts of summer rainfall for the United Kingdom, Ireland, and northern France and also suggest that current dynamical model forecast systems have large potential for improvement. |
英文关键词 | climate variability seasonal forecast sea-air interactions predictability |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000419128700027 |
WOS关键词 | NORTH-AMERICAN ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; PRESSURE ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/204869 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Osso, Albert,Sutton, Rowan,Shaffrey, Len,et al. Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2018,115(1):59-63. |
APA | Osso, Albert,Sutton, Rowan,Shaffrey, Len,&Dong, Buwen.(2018).Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,115(1),59-63. |
MLA | Osso, Albert,et al."Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 115.1(2018):59-63. |
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