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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0310.1 |
Northern North Atlantic Sea Level in CMIP5 Climate Models: Evaluation of Mean State, Variability, and Trends against Altimetric Observations | |
Richter, Kristin1; Nilsen, Jan Even Oie2; Raj, Roshin P.2; Bethke, Ingo3; Johannessen, Johnny A.2,4; Slangen, Aimee B. A.5,6; Marzeion, Ben7 | |
2017-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:23 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Austria; Norway; Netherlands; Germany |
英文摘要 | The northern North Atlantic comprises a dynamically complex area with distinct topographic features, making it challenging to model oceanic features with global climate models. As climate models form the basis for assessment reports of future regional sea level rise, model evaluation is important. In this study, the representation of regional sea level in this area is evaluated in 18 climate models that contributed to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Modeled regional dynamic height is compared to observations from an altimetry-based record over the period 1993-2012 in terms of mean dynamic topography, interannual variability, and linear trend patterns. As models are expected to reproduce the location and magnitude but not the timing of internal variability, the observations are compared to the full 150-yr historical simulations using 20-yr time slices. This approach allows one to examine modeled natural variability versus observed changes and to assess whether a forced signal is detectable over the 20-yr record or whether the observed changes can be explained by internal variability. The models perform well with respect to mean dynamic topography. However, model performances degrade when interannual variability and linear trend patterns are considered. The modeled regionwide average steric and dynamic sea level rise is larger than estimated from observations, and the marked observed increase in the subpolar gyre is not consistent with a forced response but rather a result of internal variability. Using a simple weighting scheme, it is shown that the results can be used to reduce uncertainties in sea level projections. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000416489400004 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE HEIGHT ; GRAVITY-FIELD ; MASS-BALANCE ; OCEAN ; PATTERNS ; IMPACT ; RISE ; 20TH-CENTURY ; SIMULATIONS ; PROJECTIONS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20497 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Innsbruck, Inst Atmospher & Cryospher Sci, Innsbruck, Austria; 2.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Nansen Environm & Remote Sensing Ctr, Bergen, Norway; 3.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Uni Res Climate, Bergen, Norway; 4.Geophys Inst, Bergen, Norway; 5.Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res NIOZ, Dept Estuarine & Delta Syst, Yerseke, Netherlands; 6.Univ Utrecht, Yerseke, Netherlands; 7.Univ Bremen, Inst Geog, Bremen, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Richter, Kristin,Nilsen, Jan Even Oie,Raj, Roshin P.,et al. Northern North Atlantic Sea Level in CMIP5 Climate Models: Evaluation of Mean State, Variability, and Trends against Altimetric Observations[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(23). |
APA | Richter, Kristin.,Nilsen, Jan Even Oie.,Raj, Roshin P..,Bethke, Ingo.,Johannessen, Johnny A..,...&Marzeion, Ben.(2017).Northern North Atlantic Sea Level in CMIP5 Climate Models: Evaluation of Mean State, Variability, and Trends against Altimetric Observations.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(23). |
MLA | Richter, Kristin,et al."Northern North Atlantic Sea Level in CMIP5 Climate Models: Evaluation of Mean State, Variability, and Trends against Altimetric Observations".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.23(2017). |
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