Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0238.1 |
Robust Responses of the Sahelian Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming | |
Hill, Spencer A.1,2; Ming, Yi3; Zhao, Ming3,4 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:24页码:9793-9814 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | How the globally uniform component of sea surface temperature (SST) warming influences rainfall in the African Sahel remains insufficiently studied, despite mean SST warming being among the most robustly simulated and theoretically grounded features of anthropogenic climate change. A prior study using the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) AM2.1 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) demonstrated that uniform SST warming strengthens the prevailing northerly advection of dry Saharan air into the Sahel. The present study uses uniform SST warming simulations performed with 7 GFDL and 10 CMIP5 AGCMs to assess the robustness of this drying mechanism across models and uses observations to assess the physical credibility of the severe drying response in AM2.1. In all 17 AGCMs, mean SST warming enhances the free-tropospheric meridional moisture gradient spanning the Sahel and with it the Saharan dry-air advection. Energetically, this is partially balanced by anomalous subsidence, yielding decreased precipitation in 14 of the 17 models. Anomalous subsidence and precipitation are tightly linked across the GFDL models but not the CMIP5 models, precluding the use of this relationship as the start of a causal chain ending in an emergent observational constraint. For AM2.1, cloud-rainfall covariances generate radiative feedbacks on drying through the subsidence mechanism and through surface hydrology that are excessive compared to observations at the interannual time scale. These feedbacks also act in the equilibrium response to uniform warming, calling into question the Sahel's severe drying response to warming in all coupled models using AM2.1. |
英文关键词 | Atmosphere Africa Rainfall Sea surface temperature Climate change Climate models |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000450407600001 |
WOS关键词 | SHALLOW MERIDIONAL CIRCULATIONS ; ERA-INTERIM REANALYSIS ; INCLUDING MASS FLUXES ; GENERAL-CIRCULATION ; CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION ; MOIST CONVECTION ; CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ; LAND WATER ; PART I ; ENERGY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20515 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA; 2.CALTECH, Div Geol & Planetary Sci, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA; 3.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA; 4.Univ Corp Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hill, Spencer A.,Ming, Yi,Zhao, Ming. Robust Responses of the Sahelian Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(24):9793-9814. |
APA | Hill, Spencer A.,Ming, Yi,&Zhao, Ming.(2018).Robust Responses of the Sahelian Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(24),9793-9814. |
MLA | Hill, Spencer A.,et al."Robust Responses of the Sahelian Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.24(2018):9793-9814. |
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