GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0643.1
Anthropogenic and Natural Contributions to the Lengthening of the Summer Season in the Northern Hemisphere
Park, Bo-Joung1; Kim, Yeon-Hee1; Min, Seung-Ki1; Lim, Eun-Pa2
2018-09-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:17页码:6803-6819
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家South Korea; Australia
英文摘要

Observed long-term variations in summer season timing and length in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents and their subregions were analyzed using temperature-based indices. The climatological mean showed coastal-inland contrast; summer starts and ends earlier inland than in coastal areas because of differences in heat capacity. Observations for the past 60 years (1953-2012) show lengthening of the summer season with earlier summer onset and delayed summer withdrawal across the NH. The summer onset advance contributed more to the observed increase in summer season length in many regions than the delay of summer withdrawal. To understand anthropogenic and natural contributions to the observed change, summer season trends from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel simulations forced with the observed external forcings [anthropogenic plus natural forcing (ALL), natural forcing only (NAT), and greenhouse gas forcing only (GHG)] were analyzed. ALL and GHG simulations were found to reproduce the overall observed global and regional lengthening trends, but NAT had negligible trends, which implies that increased greenhouse gases were the main cause of the observed changes. However, ALL runs tend to underestimate the observed trend of summer onset and overestimate that of withdrawal, the causes of which remain to be determined. Possible contributions of multidecadal variabilities, such as Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, to the observed regional trends in summer season length were also assessed. The results suggest that multidecadal variability can explain a moderate portion (about +/- 10%) of the observed trends in summer season length, mainly over the high latitudes.


英文关键词Summer warm season Climate change Climate variability Climate models Seasonal cycle
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000439445100002
WOS关键词RECENT CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ANNUAL CYCLE ; GROWING-SEASON ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; UNITED-STATES ; EUROPE ; RESPONSES ; TRENDS ; MODEL ; ONSET
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20954
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Pohang Univ Sci & Technol, Div Environm Sci & Engn, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, South Korea;
2.Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
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GB/T 7714
Park, Bo-Joung,Kim, Yeon-Hee,Min, Seung-Ki,et al. Anthropogenic and Natural Contributions to the Lengthening of the Summer Season in the Northern Hemisphere[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(17):6803-6819.
APA Park, Bo-Joung,Kim, Yeon-Hee,Min, Seung-Ki,&Lim, Eun-Pa.(2018).Anthropogenic and Natural Contributions to the Lengthening of the Summer Season in the Northern Hemisphere.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(17),6803-6819.
MLA Park, Bo-Joung,et al."Anthropogenic and Natural Contributions to the Lengthening of the Summer Season in the Northern Hemisphere".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.17(2018):6803-6819.
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