GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0106.1
Trends in Extreme Rainfall Frequency in the Contiguous United States: Attribution to Climate Change and Climate Variability Modes
Armal, Saman; Devineni, Naresh; Khanbilvardi, Reza
2018
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:1页码:369-385
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

This study presents a systematic analysis for identifying and attributing trends in the annual frequency of extreme rainfall events across the contiguous United States to climate change and climate variability modes. A Bayesian multilevel model is developed for 1244 rainfall stations simultaneously to test the null hypothesis of no trend and verify two alternate hypotheses: trend can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies or to a combination of well-known cyclical climate modes with varying quasiperiodicities and global surface temperature anomalies. The Bayesian multilevel model provides the opportunity to pool information across stations and reduce the parameter estimation uncertainty, hence identifying the trends better. The choice of the best alternate hypothesis is made based on the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion, a Bayesian pointwise predictive accuracy measure. Statistically significant time trends are observed in 742 of the 1244 stations. Trends in 409 of these stations can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are predominantly found in the U.S. Southeast and Northeast climate regions. The trends in 274 of these stations can be attributed to El Nino-Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation along with changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are mainly found in the U.S. Northwest, West, and Southwest climate regions.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000429528800022
WOS关键词ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION ; DAILY PRECIPITATION ; WINTER PRECIPITATION ; CROSS-VALIDATION ; ENSO ; TEMPERATURE ; US ; INTENSITY ; CYCLE
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20957
专题气候变化
作者单位CUNY, City Coll, Ctr Water Resources & Environm Res,Dept Civil Eng, NOAA Ctr Earth Syst Sci & Remote Sensing Technol, New York, NY 10021 USA
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Armal, Saman,Devineni, Naresh,Khanbilvardi, Reza. Trends in Extreme Rainfall Frequency in the Contiguous United States: Attribution to Climate Change and Climate Variability Modes[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(1):369-385.
APA Armal, Saman,Devineni, Naresh,&Khanbilvardi, Reza.(2018).Trends in Extreme Rainfall Frequency in the Contiguous United States: Attribution to Climate Change and Climate Variability Modes.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(1),369-385.
MLA Armal, Saman,et al."Trends in Extreme Rainfall Frequency in the Contiguous United States: Attribution to Climate Change and Climate Variability Modes".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.1(2018):369-385.
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