Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0106.1 |
Trends in Extreme Rainfall Frequency in the Contiguous United States: Attribution to Climate Change and Climate Variability Modes | |
Armal, Saman; Devineni, Naresh; Khanbilvardi, Reza | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:1页码:369-385 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | This study presents a systematic analysis for identifying and attributing trends in the annual frequency of extreme rainfall events across the contiguous United States to climate change and climate variability modes. A Bayesian multilevel model is developed for 1244 rainfall stations simultaneously to test the null hypothesis of no trend and verify two alternate hypotheses: trend can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies or to a combination of well-known cyclical climate modes with varying quasiperiodicities and global surface temperature anomalies. The Bayesian multilevel model provides the opportunity to pool information across stations and reduce the parameter estimation uncertainty, hence identifying the trends better. The choice of the best alternate hypothesis is made based on the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion, a Bayesian pointwise predictive accuracy measure. Statistically significant time trends are observed in 742 of the 1244 stations. Trends in 409 of these stations can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are predominantly found in the U.S. Southeast and Northeast climate regions. The trends in 274 of these stations can be attributed to El Nino-Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation along with changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are mainly found in the U.S. Northwest, West, and Southwest climate regions. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429528800022 |
WOS关键词 | ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION ; DAILY PRECIPITATION ; WINTER PRECIPITATION ; CROSS-VALIDATION ; ENSO ; TEMPERATURE ; US ; INTENSITY ; CYCLE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20957 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | CUNY, City Coll, Ctr Water Resources & Environm Res,Dept Civil Eng, NOAA Ctr Earth Syst Sci & Remote Sensing Technol, New York, NY 10021 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Armal, Saman,Devineni, Naresh,Khanbilvardi, Reza. Trends in Extreme Rainfall Frequency in the Contiguous United States: Attribution to Climate Change and Climate Variability Modes[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(1):369-385. |
APA | Armal, Saman,Devineni, Naresh,&Khanbilvardi, Reza.(2018).Trends in Extreme Rainfall Frequency in the Contiguous United States: Attribution to Climate Change and Climate Variability Modes.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(1),369-385. |
MLA | Armal, Saman,et al."Trends in Extreme Rainfall Frequency in the Contiguous United States: Attribution to Climate Change and Climate Variability Modes".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.1(2018):369-385. |
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