GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1002/2017WR021470
On Lack of Robustness in Hydrological Model Development Due to Absence of Guidelines for Selecting Calibration and Evaluation Data: Demonstration for Data-Driven Models
Zheng, Feifei1; Maier, Holger R.1,2; Wu, Wenyan2,3; Dandy, Graeme C.2; Gupta, Hoshin V.4; Zhang, Tuqiao1
2018-02-01
发表期刊WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
ISSN0043-1397
EISSN1944-7973
出版年2018
卷号54期号:2页码:1013-1030
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China; Australia; USA
英文摘要

Hydrological models are used for a wide variety of engineering purposes, including streamflow forecasting and flood-risk estimation. To develop such models, it is common to allocate the available data to calibration and evaluation data subsets. Surprisingly, the issue of how this allocation can affect model evaluation performance has been largely ignored in the research literature. This paper discusses the evaluation performance bias that can arise from how available data are allocated to calibration and evaluation subsets. As a first step to assessing this issue in a statistically rigorous fashion, we present a comprehensive investigation of the influence of data allocation on the development of data-driven artificial neural network (ANN) models of streamflow. Four well-known formal data splitting methods are applied to 754 catchments from Australia and the U.S. to develop 902,483 ANN models. Results clearly show that the choice of the method used for data allocation has a significant impact on model performance, particularly for runoff data that are more highly skewed, highlighting the importance of considering the impact of data splitting when developing hydrological models. The statistical behavior of the data splitting methods investigated is discussed and guidance is offered on the selection of the most appropriate data splitting methods to achieve representative evaluation performance for streamflow data with different statistical properties. Although our results are obtained for data-driven models, they highlight the fact that this issue is likely to have a significant impact on all types of hydrological models, especially conceptual rainfall-runoff models.


领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000428474500020
WOS关键词RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS ; ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORK ; AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION ; PARAMETER-ESTIMATION ; VARIABLE SELECTION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; NON-STATIONARITY ; WATER-QUALITY ; VALIDATION ; INFORMATION
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21767
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Zhejiang Univ, Coll Civil Engn & Architecture, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China;
2.Univ Adelaide, Sch Civil Environm & Min Engn, Adelaide, SA, Australia;
3.Univ Melbourne, Melbourne Sch Engn, Dept Infrastruct Engn, Melbourne, Vic, Australia;
4.Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Atmospher Sci, Tucson, AZ USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Zheng, Feifei,Maier, Holger R.,Wu, Wenyan,et al. On Lack of Robustness in Hydrological Model Development Due to Absence of Guidelines for Selecting Calibration and Evaluation Data: Demonstration for Data-Driven Models[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(2):1013-1030.
APA Zheng, Feifei,Maier, Holger R.,Wu, Wenyan,Dandy, Graeme C.,Gupta, Hoshin V.,&Zhang, Tuqiao.(2018).On Lack of Robustness in Hydrological Model Development Due to Absence of Guidelines for Selecting Calibration and Evaluation Data: Demonstration for Data-Driven Models.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(2),1013-1030.
MLA Zheng, Feifei,et al."On Lack of Robustness in Hydrological Model Development Due to Absence of Guidelines for Selecting Calibration and Evaluation Data: Demonstration for Data-Driven Models".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.2(2018):1013-1030.
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