Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018WR023750 |
Equifinality and Flux Mapping: A New Approach to Model Evaluation and Process Representation Under Uncertainty | |
Khatami, Sina; Peel, Murray C.; Peterson, Tim J.; Western, Andrew W. | |
2019-11-12 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | Uncertainty analysis is an integral part of any scientific modeling, particularly within the domain of hydrological sciences given the various types and sources of uncertainty. At the center of uncertainty rests the concept of equifinality, that is, reaching a given endpoint (finality) through different pathways. The operational definition of equifinality in hydrological modeling is that various model structures and/or parameter sets (i.e., equal pathways) are equally capable of reproducing a similar (not necessarily identical) hydrological outcome (i.e., finality). Here we argue that there is more to model equifinality than model structures/parameters, that is, other model components can give rise to model equifinality and/or could be used to explore equifinality within model space. We identified six facets of model equifinality, namely, model structure, parameters, performance metrics, initial and boundary conditions, inputs, and internal fluxes. Focusing on model internal fluxes, we developed a methodology called flux mapping that has fundamental implications in understanding and evaluating model process representation within the paradigm of multiple working hypotheses. To illustrate this, we examine the equifinality of runoff fluxes of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model for a number of different Australian catchments. We demonstrate how flux maps can give new insights into the model behavior that cannot be captured by conventional model evaluation methods. We discuss the advantages of flux space, as a subspace of the model space not usually examined, over parameter space. We further discuss the utility of flux mapping in hypothesis generation and testing, extendable to any field of scientific modeling of open complex systems under uncertainty. |
英文关键词 | equifinality open complex systems hydrological systems uncertainty scientific modeling and model evaluation modeling philosophy |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000495830000001 |
WOS关键词 | RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL ; MULTIPLE HYDROLOGICAL ATTRACTORS ; SATELLITE SOIL-MOISTURE ; CATCHMENT MODEL ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; DEEP UNCERTAINTY ; CALIBRATION ; PERFORMANCE ; WATER ; PATTERNS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/223889 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Univ Melbourne, Dept Infrastruct Engn, Parkville, Vic, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Khatami, Sina,Peel, Murray C.,Peterson, Tim J.,et al. Equifinality and Flux Mapping: A New Approach to Model Evaluation and Process Representation Under Uncertainty[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019. |
APA | Khatami, Sina,Peel, Murray C.,Peterson, Tim J.,&Western, Andrew W..(2019).Equifinality and Flux Mapping: A New Approach to Model Evaluation and Process Representation Under Uncertainty.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH. |
MLA | Khatami, Sina,et al."Equifinality and Flux Mapping: A New Approach to Model Evaluation and Process Representation Under Uncertainty".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH (2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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