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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33 |
Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave | |
Mecking, J. V.1,2; Drijfhout, S. S.1,3,4; Hirschi, J. J-M2; Blaker, A. T.2 | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | During the summer of 2015, central Europe experienced a major heatwave that was preceded by anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern North Atlantic. Recent observation-based studies found a correlation between North Atlantic SST in spring and European summer temperatures, suggesting potential for predictability. Here we show, by using a high-resolution climate model, that ocean temperature anomalies, in combination with matching atmospheric and sea-ice initial conditions were key to the development of the 2015 European heatwave. In a series of 30-member ensemble simulations we test different combinations of ocean temperature and salinity initial states versus non-initialised climatology, mediated in both ensembles by different atmospheric/sea-ice initial conditions, using a non-standard initialisation method without data-assimilation. With the best combination of the initial ocean, and matching atmosphere/sea-ice initial conditions, the ensemble mean temperature response over central Europe in this set-up equals 60% of the observed anomaly, with 6 out of 30 ensemble-members showing similar, or even larger surface air temperature anomalies than observed. |
英文关键词 | seasonal predictions European summer 2015 heatwave 2015 cold blob North Atlantic SST |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000499325700001 |
WOS关键词 | NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; SUMMER ; MODEL ; VARIABILITY ; WAVES ; INITIALIZATION ; PREDICTIONS ; ANOMALIES ; DROUGHT ; WINTERS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224659 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Southampton, Natl Oceanog Ctr Southampton, Ocean & Earth Sci, Southampton, Hants, England; 2.Natl Oceanog Ctr, Southampton, Hants, England; 3.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst, De Bilt, Netherlands; 4.Univ Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mecking, J. V.,Drijfhout, S. S.,Hirschi, J. J-M,et al. Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(11). |
APA | Mecking, J. V.,Drijfhout, S. S.,Hirschi, J. J-M,&Blaker, A. T..(2019).Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(11). |
MLA | Mecking, J. V.,et al."Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.11(2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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