GSTDTAP
DOI10.1002/joc.6394
Changes in future rainfall extremes over Northeast Bangladesh: A Bayesian model averaging approach
Abul Basher, Md1; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful1; Stiller-Reeve, Mathew A.2; Chu, Pao-Shin3
2019-11-24
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2019
文章类型Article;Early Access
语种英语
国家Bangladesh; Norway; USA
英文摘要

In this paper, we used a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach to analyse the changes in rainfall extremes in the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 over northeast Bangladesh as a consequence of climate change. Climate change over this region could potentially impact agricultural production, water resources management, and the overall economy of the country. We used six regional climate models (RCMs) over the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment South Asia domain. We used one medium stabilization scenario (RCP4.5) and one high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) for projecting the extreme rainfall indices. A multi-model ensemble mean was generated using the BMA approach. The BMA mean is a weighted average related to each RCM's predictive skill during the training period. Most of the rainfall extremes are expected to increase in both pre-monsoon (March-May) and monsoon (June-September) seasons in the future compared with baseline (1976-2005). The average pre-monsoon rainfall of the study area is projected to increase by 12.93 and 18.42% under RCP4.5 and 18.18 and 23.85% under RCP8.5 for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2099, respectively. The average monsoon rainfall of the study area is projected to increase by 4.96 and 2.27% under RCP4.5 and 6.56 and 6.40% under RCP8.5 for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2099, respectively. All the extreme indices except consecutive wet day are expected to change significantly at the 95% confidence level during the pre-monsoon season. The study area will potentially be subjected to more frequent floods in the future both in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons as a consequence of climate change. Notably, the intensity and the magnitude of flash flooding in the pre-monsoon season are expected to increase more in the future because the increase in extreme indices is more significant during that season.


英文关键词Bayesian model averaging climate change multi-model ensemble mean rainfall extremes regional climate models representative concentration pathways
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000498175500001
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; MONSOON PRECIPITATION ; BIAS CORRECTION ; RIVER-BASIN ; UNCERTAINTY ; PROJECTION ; SIMULATIONS ; EVENTS ; SCENARIOS ; ENSEMBLES
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225457
专题环境与发展全球科技态势
作者单位1.BUET, IWFM, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh;
2.NORCE Norwegian Res Ctr AS, Bergen, Norway;
3.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Atmospher Sci, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci & Technol, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Abul Basher, Md,Islam, A. K. M. Saiful,Stiller-Reeve, Mathew A.,et al. Changes in future rainfall extremes over Northeast Bangladesh: A Bayesian model averaging approach[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019.
APA Abul Basher, Md,Islam, A. K. M. Saiful,Stiller-Reeve, Mathew A.,&Chu, Pao-Shin.(2019).Changes in future rainfall extremes over Northeast Bangladesh: A Bayesian model averaging approach.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY.
MLA Abul Basher, Md,et al."Changes in future rainfall extremes over Northeast Bangladesh: A Bayesian model averaging approach".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019).
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