Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aabcdd |
Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation | |
Dessai, Suraje1; Bhave, Ajay1,2; Birch, Cathryn1,3; Conway, Declan2; Garcia-Carreras, Luis4; Gosling, John Paul5; Mittal, Neha1; Stainforth, David2,6,7 | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Knowledge about regional and local climate change can inform climate risk assessments and adaptation decisions. However, estimates of future precipitation change at the regional and local level are deeply uncertain for many parts of the world. A novel methodology was developed that uses climate processes and expert elicitation to build narratives of future regional precipitation change. The narratives qualitatively describe physically plausible evolutions of future regional climate substantiated by climate processes. This method is applied to the Indian Summer Monsoon, focusing on the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, Southern India. Six climate narratives are constructed as a function of two drivers prioritised by the experts: moisture availability over the Arabian Sea and strength of the low-level westerly flow. The narratives describe how future precipitation could change until the 2050s and which climate processes and anthropogenic factors could influence this evolution. Analysis using observed (Global Precipitation Climatology Centre) and re-analysis (ERA20 and Interim) data shows the experts' judgement on key drivers fits well with empirical relationships. The expert elicited drivers explain 70% of the variance in peak monsoon precipitation (July and August) over the Western Ghats between 1979-2013 (using ERA Interim). The study shows that through expert elicitation, process-based narratives enable climate scientists to characterise and communicate elements of deep uncertainty in future precipitation change. Expert judgment techniques need be more widely applied to characterise uncertainty in regional and local climate change. |
英文关键词 | regional climate change uncertainty climate processes narratives expert elicitation Indian Summer Monsoon Cauvery |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000436603900003 |
WOS关键词 | INDIAN-SUMMER MONSOON ; CAUVERY RIVER-BASIN ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; FUTURE ; JUDGMENT ; SCENARIO ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26087 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England; 2.London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Grantham Res Inst Climate Change & Environm, London WC2A 2AE, England; 3.Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England; 4.Univ Manchester, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England; 5.Univ Leeds, Sch Math, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England; 6.Univ Warwick, Dept Phys, Coventry, W Midlands, England; 7.London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Ctr Anal Time Series, London, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dessai, Suraje,Bhave, Ajay,Birch, Cathryn,et al. Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(7). |
APA | Dessai, Suraje.,Bhave, Ajay.,Birch, Cathryn.,Conway, Declan.,Garcia-Carreras, Luis.,...&Stainforth, David.(2018).Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(7). |
MLA | Dessai, Suraje,et al."Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.7(2018). |
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