资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The Caribbean islands are expected to see more frequent and severe droughts from reduced precipitation and increased evaporative demand due to anthropogenic climate change. Between 2013 and 2016, the Caribbean experienced a widespread drought due in part to El Nino in 2015-2016, but it is unknown whether its severity was exacerbated by anthropogenic warming. This work examines the role of recent warming on this drought, using a recently developed high-resolution self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index data set. The resulting analysis suggest that anthropogenic warming accounted for similar to 15-17% of the drought's severity and similar to 7% of its spatial extent. These findings strongly suggest that climate model projected anthropogenic drying in the Caribbean is already underway, with major implications for the more than 43 million people currently living in this region.

Plain Language Summary Climate models project significant drying for the Caribbean as a consequence of increased anthropogenic greenhouse-gas concentrations. Between 2013 and 2016, virtually, the entire region experienced a Pan-Caribbean drought, which was unprecedented since at least 1950. We find that human-caused warming contributed to similar to 15-17% of drought severity by increasing evapotranspiration rates and accounted for similar to 7% of land area under drought across the Caribbean. Our results therefore suggest that anthropogenic warming has already increased drought risk in the Caribbean.