资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Changes in global land monsoon (GLM) precipitation determine the local water resource, affecting two‐thirds of global population. The future changes in GLM summer precipitation and the sources of projection uncertainty under four scenarios are investigated using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The GLM summer precipitation is projected to increase by 1.76±1.57% (2.54±2.22%), 1.33±1.97% (3.52±3.05%), 0.96±2.04% (3.51±4.97%), 1.71±2.38% (5.75±5.92%) in the near‐term (long‐term) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. The enhancement is caused by thermodynamic responses due to increased moisture, which is partly offset by dynamic responses due to weakened circulation. The uncertainty in GLM precipitation projection is the largest in SSP5‐8.5 long‐term projection. The uncertainty of sub‐monsoon precipitation projections is larger than that in GLM precipitation. The uncertainty of monsoon precipitation projection arises from the circulation changes, which can be partly explained by model‐dependent response to uniform sea surface temperature warming.