Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106747 |
The Economy-Wide Value-at-Risk from the Exposure of Natural Capital to Climate Change and Extreme Natural Events: The Case of Wind Damage and Forest Recreational Services in New Zealand | |
Juan J. Monge, Garry W. McDonald | |
2020-06-23 | |
发表期刊 | Ecological Economics |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | The long-term management of natural capital is essential for the stable and resilient flow of ecosystem services for future generations facing climatic uncertainty. Understanding its resilience to extreme natural events, using biological principles, and integrating them into more holistic systems-wide modelling techniques is crucial to evaluate and design the wider economic impacts from alternative management interventions. Here we developed a probabilistic and system-wide bio-economic model to measure extreme economic impacts from natural events using the financial concept of Value at Risk. We have applied the new extreme economic impact metric to measure the economy-wide impact from the disruption of mountain-biking recreational services in the Whakarewarewa peri-urban forest in Rotorua, New Zealand from a potential windthrow event. We identified that extreme natural events, such as windthrows, could exert a substantial impact on the urban forest-dependent regional economy. This impact could potentially be intensified by the CO2 forest fertilization effects predicted under future climate scenarios and by adopting low-intensity silvicultural regimes currently rewarded by national climate change mitigation policies. Some of the insights from this study could be the precursors to develop robust adaptation strategies using robust decision-making techniques considering inclusive environmental-economic accounting frameworks. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/278055 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Juan J. Monge, Garry W. McDonald. The Economy-Wide Value-at-Risk from the Exposure of Natural Capital to Climate Change and Extreme Natural Events: The Case of Wind Damage and Forest Recreational Services in New Zealand[J]. Ecological Economics,2020. |
APA | Juan J. Monge, Garry W. McDonald.(2020).The Economy-Wide Value-at-Risk from the Exposure of Natural Capital to Climate Change and Extreme Natural Events: The Case of Wind Damage and Forest Recreational Services in New Zealand.Ecological Economics. |
MLA | Juan J. Monge, Garry W. McDonald."The Economy-Wide Value-at-Risk from the Exposure of Natural Capital to Climate Change and Extreme Natural Events: The Case of Wind Damage and Forest Recreational Services in New Zealand".Ecological Economics (2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论