GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2018GL078719
Distinct Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Transport Into the Arctic Under Internal Variability and Climate Change
Oldenburg, Dylan1; Armour, Kyle C.1,2; Thompson, LuAnne1; Bitz, Cecilia M.2
2018-08-16
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2018
卷号45期号:15页码:7692-7700
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Northward ocean heat transport (OHT) plays a key role in Arctic climate variability and change. Unforced climate model simulations suggest that at decadal and longer timescales, strengthened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is correlated with increased OHT into the Arctic. Yet greenhouse gas forced simulations predict increased Arctic OHT while AMOC weakens. Here we partition OHT changes into contributions from dynamic circulation changes and thermodynamic temperature advection, as well as meridional overturning and gyre changes. We find that under decadal-scale internal variability, strengthened AMOC converges heat in the subpolar gyre; anomalous heat is advected into the Arctic by both time mean circulations and strengthened gyre circulations. Under greenhouse gas forcing, weakened AMOC reduces subpolar gyre heat convergence; yet Arctic OHT increases as mean overturning and strengthened gyre circulations advect warmed surface waters. Thus, caution should be exercised when inferring Arctic OHT from AMOC, as the relationship between OHT and AMOC changes depends on whether they are internally generated or externally forced.


Plain Language Summary Relatively warm currents flow northward from the Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean, acting to warm Arctic climate. Changes in the strength or temperature of these currents are thought to play an important role in Arctic climate change and variability. Using climate models, we show that natural fluctuations in heat transport into the Arctic are linked to changes in currents further south. In particular, when the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is strong, warmer waters are delivered to the subpolar gyre near Greenland and subsequently carried northward. AMOC is expected to weaken under greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, suggesting that heat transport into the Arctic may decrease if the same mechanisms apply to climate change. However, climate models predict increased heat transport into the Arctic under GHG forcing, even while AMOC slows, enhancing Arctic warming. This occurs because GHGs (i) warm surface waters, increasing the heat carried by northward-flowing currents and (ii) change ocean currents near Greenland, increasing the flow of already warm waters. Our results indicate that different mechanisms govern changes in ocean heat transport into the Arctic under variability and GHG warming. Thus, caution should be taken when predicting how Arctic climate will be affected by AMOC changes over coming decades.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000443129500051
WOS关键词SEA-ICE ; OVERTURNING CIRCULATION ; AMPLIFICATION ; IMPACT ; CMIP5 ; TEMPERATURE ; OSCILLATION ; DECLINE ; MODELS
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27831
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Washington, Sch Oceanog, Seattle, WA 98195 USA;
2.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
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GB/T 7714
Oldenburg, Dylan,Armour, Kyle C.,Thompson, LuAnne,et al. Distinct Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Transport Into the Arctic Under Internal Variability and Climate Change[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(15):7692-7700.
APA Oldenburg, Dylan,Armour, Kyle C.,Thompson, LuAnne,&Bitz, Cecilia M..(2018).Distinct Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Transport Into the Arctic Under Internal Variability and Climate Change.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(15),7692-7700.
MLA Oldenburg, Dylan,et al."Distinct Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Transport Into the Arctic Under Internal Variability and Climate Change".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.15(2018):7692-7700.
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