Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-20-4047-2020 |
Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH: exploring model diversity | |
Wild, Oliver1; 39;Connor, Fiona2 | |
2020-04-03 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS |
ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 20期号:7页码:4047-4058 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; USA |
英文摘要 | Projections of future atmospheric composition change and its impacts on air quality and climate depend heavily on chemistry-climate models that allow us to investigate the effects of changing emissions and meteorology. These models are imperfect as they rely on our understanding of the chemical, physical and dynamical processes governing atmospheric composition, on the approximations needed to represent these numerically, and on the limitations of the observations required to constrain them. Model inter-comparison studies show substantial diversity in results that reflect underlying uncertainties, but little progress has been made in explaining the causes of this or in identifying the weaknesses in process understanding or representation that could lead to improved models and to better scientific understanding. Global sensitivity analysis provides a valuable method of identifying and quantifying the main causes of diversity in current models. For the first time, we apply Gaussian process emulation with three independent global chemistry-transport models to quantify the sensitivity of ozone and hydroxyl radicals (OH) to important climate-relevant variables, poorly characterised processes and uncertain emissions. We show a clear sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to atmospheric humidity and precursor emissions which is similar for the models, but find large differences between models for methane lifetime, highlighting substantial differences in the sensitivity of OH to primary and secondary production. This approach al-lows us to identify key areas where model improvements are required while providing valuable new insight into the processes driving tropospheric composition change. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000524058800001 |
WOS关键词 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY ; AIR-QUALITY ; UNCERTAINTIES ; SIMULATIONS ; EMULATION ; EMISSIONS ; IMPACT ; OXIDES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/278733 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England; 2.Imperial Coll, Dept Phys, London, England; 3.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 4.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 5.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England; 6.Univ Manchester, Sch Math, Manchester, Lancs, England; 7.Sheffield Hallam Univ, Dept Engn & Math, Sheffield, S Yorkshire, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wild, Oliver,39;Connor, Fiona. Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH: exploring model diversity[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2020,20(7):4047-4058. |
APA | Wild, Oliver,&39;Connor, Fiona.(2020).Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH: exploring model diversity.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,20(7),4047-4058. |
MLA | Wild, Oliver,et al."Global sensitivity analysis of chemistry-climate model budgets of tropospheric ozone and OH: exploring model diversity".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 20.7(2020):4047-4058. |
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