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DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ab6039
Stable climate metrics for emissions of short and long-lived species-combining steps and pulses
Collins, William J.1; Frame, David J.2; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.3; Shine, Keith P.1
2020-02-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2020
卷号15期号:2
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England; New Zealand; Norway
英文摘要

Multi-gas climate agreements rely on a methodology (widely referred to as 'metrics') to place emissions of different gases on a CO2-equivalent scale. There has been an ongoing debate on the extent to which existing metrics serve current climate policy. Endpoint metrics (such as global temperature change potential GTP) are the most closely related to policy goals based on temperature limits (such as Article 2 of the Paris Agreement). However, for short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), endpoint metrics vary strongly with time horizon making them difficult to apply in practical situations. We show how combining endpoint metrics for a step change in SLCF emissions with a pulse emission of CO2 leads to an endpoint metric that only varies slowly over time horizons of interest. We therefore suggest that these combined step-pulse metrics (denoted combined global warming potential CGWP and combined global temperature change potential CGTP) can be a useful way to include short and long-lived species in the same basket in policy applications-this assumes a single basket approach is preferred by policy makers. The advantage of a combined step-pulse metric for SLCFs is that for species with a lifetime less than 20 years a single time horizon of around 75 years can cover the range of timescales appropriate to the Paris Agreement. These metrics build on recent work using the traditional global warming potential (GWP) metric in a new way, called GWP*. We show how the GWP* relates to CGWP and CGTP and that it systematically underestimates the temperature effects of SLCFs by up to 20%. These step-pulse metrics are all more appropriate than the conventional GWP for comparing the relative contributions of different species to future temperature targets and for SLCFs they are much less dependent on time horizon than GTP.


英文关键词climate metrics short-lived climate forcers non-CO2 greenhouse gases carbon budgets climate targets
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000522236600008
WOS关键词GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS ; CONSISTENT
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279159
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England;
2.Victoria Univ Wellington, New Zealand Climate Change Res Inst, Wellington, New Zealand;
3.Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res CICERO, Oslo, Norway
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GB/T 7714
Collins, William J.,Frame, David J.,Fuglestvedt, Jan S.,et al. Stable climate metrics for emissions of short and long-lived species-combining steps and pulses[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(2).
APA Collins, William J.,Frame, David J.,Fuglestvedt, Jan S.,&Shine, Keith P..(2020).Stable climate metrics for emissions of short and long-lived species-combining steps and pulses.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(2).
MLA Collins, William J.,et al."Stable climate metrics for emissions of short and long-lived species-combining steps and pulses".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.2(2020).
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