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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7b |
Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions | |
Spafford, Lynsay1,2; MacDougall, Andrew H.2 | |
2020-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 15期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | The Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE) is the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions. The TCRE implies a finite quantity of CO2 emissions, or carbon budget, consistent with a given temperature change limit. The uncertainty of the TCRE is often assumed be normally distributed, but this assumption has yet to be validated. We calculated the TCRE using a zero-dimensional ocean diffusive model and a Monte-Carlo error propagation (n = 10 000 000) randomly drawing from probability density functions of the climate feedback parameter, the land-borne fraction of carbon, radiative forcing from an e-fold increase in CO2 concentration, effective ocean diffusivity, and the ratio of sea to global surface temperature change. The calculated TCRE has a positively skewed distribution, ranging from 1.1 to 2.9 K EgC(-1) (5%-95% confidence), with a mean and median value of 1.9 and 1.8 K EgC(-1). The calculated distribution of the TCRE is well described by a log-normal distribution. The CO2-only carbon budget compatible with 2 degrees C warming is 1100 PgC, ranging from 700 to 1800 PgC (5%-95% confidence) estimated using a simplified model of ocean dynamics. Climate sensitivity is the most influential Earth System parameter on the TCRE, followed by the land-borne fraction of carbon, radiative forcing from an e-fold increase in CO2, effective ocean diffusivity, and the ratio of sea to global surface temperature change. While the uncertainty of the TCRE is considerable, the use of a log-normal distribution may improve estimations of the TCRE and associated carbon budgets. |
英文关键词 | transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions carbon budgets climate sensitivity land-borne fraction of carbon carbon-climate feedback |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000519022500001 |
WOS关键词 | CARBON-DIOXIDE ; IMPULSE-RESPONSE ; PARIS AGREEMENT ; SENSITIVITY ; OCEAN ; TEMPERATURE ; PROPORTIONALITY ; BUDGETS ; HEAT ; UNCERTAINTIES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279261 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Mem Univ Newfoundland, Dept Environm Sci, St John, NF, Canada; 2.St Francis Xavier Univ, Climate & Environm, Antigonish, NS, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Spafford, Lynsay,MacDougall, Andrew H.. Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(3). |
APA | Spafford, Lynsay,&MacDougall, Andrew H..(2020).Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(3). |
MLA | Spafford, Lynsay,et al."Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.3(2020). |
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