Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019JD030920 |
The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere | |
Domeisen, Daniela I. V.1; Butler, Amy H.2,3; Charlton-Perez, Andrew J.4; Ayarzaguena, Blanca5,6; Baldwin, Mark P.7,8; Dunn-Sigouin, Etienne9,10; Furtado, Jason C.11; Garfinkel, Chaim I.12; Hitchcock, Peter13; Karpechko, Alexey Yu.14; Kim, Hera15; Knight, Jeff16; Lang, Andrea L.17; Lim, Eun-Pa18; Marshall, Andrew18; Roff, Greg18; Schwartz, Chen12; Simpson, Isla R.19; Son, Seok-Woo15; Taguchi, Masakazu20 | |
2020-01-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 125期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland; USA; England; Spain; Norway; Israel; Finland; South Korea; Australia; Japan |
英文摘要 | The stratosphere has been identified as an important source of predictability for a range of processes on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Knowledge about S2S predictability within the stratosphere is however still limited. This study evaluates to what extent predictability in the extratropical stratosphere exists in hindcasts of operational prediction systems in the S2S database. The stratosphere is found to exhibit extended predictability as compared to the troposphere. Prediction systems with higher stratospheric skill tend to also exhibit higher skill in the troposphere. The analysis also includes an assessment of the predictability for stratospheric events, including early and midwinter sudden stratospheric warming events, strong vortex events, and extreme heat flux events for the Northern Hemisphere and final warming events for both hemispheres. Strong vortex events and final warming events exhibit higher levels of predictability as compared to sudden stratospheric warming events. In general, skill is limited to the deterministic range of 1 to 2 weeks. High-top prediction systems overall exhibit higher stratospheric prediction skill as compared to their low-top counterparts, pointing to the important role of stratospheric representation in S2S prediction models. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000521080000002 |
WOS关键词 | SOUTHERN-HEMISPHERE STRATOSPHERE ; NORTH-ATLANTIC WEATHER ; ANTARCTIC OZONE HOLE ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; SUDDEN WARMINGS ; POLAR VORTEX ; PLANETARY-WAVES ; ANNULAR MODES ; LIFE-CYCLE ; PART I |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/280031 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland; 2.Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO USA; 3.NOAA, Chem Sci Div, Boulder, CO USA; 4.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England; 5.Univ Complutense Madrid, Dept Fis Tierra & Astrofis, Madrid, Spain; 6.UCM, CSIC, Inst Geociencias, Madrid, Spain; 7.Univ Exeter, Global Syst Inst, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England; 8.Univ Exeter, Dept Math, Exeter, Devon, England; 9.Univ Bergen, Geophys Inst, Bergen, Norway; 10.Bjerknes Ctr, Bergen, Norway; 11.Univ Oklahoma, Sch Meteorol, Norman, OK 73019 USA; 12.Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Inst Earth Sci, Jerusalem, Israel; 13.Cornell Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY USA; 14.Finnish Meteorol Inst, Helsinki, Finland; 15.Seoul Natl Univ, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Seoul, South Korea; 16.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 17.SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, Albany, NY 12222 USA; 18.Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 19.NCAR, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, Boulder, CO USA; 20.Aichi Univ Educ, Dept Earth Sci, Kariya, Aichi, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Domeisen, Daniela I. V.,Butler, Amy H.,Charlton-Perez, Andrew J.,et al. The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2020,125(2). |
APA | Domeisen, Daniela I. V..,Butler, Amy H..,Charlton-Perez, Andrew J..,Ayarzaguena, Blanca.,Baldwin, Mark P..,...&Taguchi, Masakazu.(2020).The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,125(2). |
MLA | Domeisen, Daniela I. V.,et al."The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 125.2(2020). |
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