GSTDTAP  > 地球科学
DOI10.1175/JAS-D-19-0116.1
Atmospheric Predictability of the Tropics, Middle Latitudes, and Polar Regions Explored through Global Storm-Resolving Simulations
Judt, Falko
2020
发表期刊JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
ISSN0022-4928
EISSN1520-0469
出版年2020
卷号77期号:1页码:257-276
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

The predictability of the atmosphere has important implications for weather prediction, because it determines what forecast problems are potentially tractable. Even though our general understanding of error growth and predictability has been increasing, relatively little is known about the detailed structure of atmospheric predictability, such as how it varies between climate regions. The present study addresses this issue by exploring error growth and predictability in three latitude zones, using model output from a previous global storm-resolving predictability experiment by Judt published in 2018. It was determined that the tropics have longer predictability than the middle latitudes and polar regions (tropics, >20 days; middle latitudes and polar regions, a little over 2 weeks). Each latitude zone had distinct error growth characteristics, and error growth was broadly consistent with the underlying dynamics of each zone. Evidence suggests that equatorial waves play a role in the comparatively long predictability of the tropics; specifically, equatorial waves seem to be less prone to error growth than middle-latitude baroclinic disturbances. Even though the generality of the findings needs to be assessed in future studies, the overall conclusions agree with previous work in that current numerical weather prediction procedures have not reached the limits of atmospheric predictability, especially in the tropics. One way to exploit tropical predictability is to reduce model error, for example, by using global storm-resolving models instead of conventional models that parameterize convection.


英文关键词Dynamics Waves atmospheric Numerical analysis modeling Numerical weather prediction forecasting Numerical weather prediction forecasting Tropical variability
领域地球科学
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000502851700006
WOS关键词COUPLED EQUATORIAL WAVES ; UPSCALE ERROR GROWTH ; MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY ; INTRINSIC PREDICTABILITY ; WEATHER ; CONVECTION ; TEMPERATURE ; SPECTRA ; SKILL
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/280258
专题地球科学
作者单位Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
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Judt, Falko. Atmospheric Predictability of the Tropics, Middle Latitudes, and Polar Regions Explored through Global Storm-Resolving Simulations[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2020,77(1):257-276.
APA Judt, Falko.(2020).Atmospheric Predictability of the Tropics, Middle Latitudes, and Polar Regions Explored through Global Storm-Resolving Simulations.JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,77(1),257-276.
MLA Judt, Falko."Atmospheric Predictability of the Tropics, Middle Latitudes, and Polar Regions Explored through Global Storm-Resolving Simulations".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 77.1(2020):257-276.
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