Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018GL077317 |
Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events | |
Sadegh, Mojtaba1; Moftakhari, Hamed2; Gupta, Hoshin V.3; Ragno, Elisa2; Mazdiyasni, Omid2; Sanders, Brett2; Matthew, Richard4; AghaKouchak, Amir2,5 | |
2018-06-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:11页码:5470-5480 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers (e.g., ocean and fluvial flooding, drought, and heat waves) leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenarios of extremes and compound events are ignored. In this paper, we review the existing multivariate design and hazard scenario concepts and introduce a novel copula-based weighted average threshold scenario for an expected event with multiple drivers. The model can be used for obtaining multihazard design and risk assessment scenarios and their corresponding likelihoods. The proposed model offers uncertainty ranges of most likely compound hazards using Bayesian inference. We show that the uncertainty ranges of design quantiles might be large and may differ significantly from one copula model to the other. We also demonstrate that the choice of marginal and copula functions may profoundly impact the multihazard design values. A robust analysis should account for these uncertainties within and between multivariate models that translate into multihazard design quantiles. |
英文关键词 | compound extremes multihazard scenario copula Bayesian inference uncertainty assessment |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000436249900029 |
WOS关键词 | APPROXIMATE BAYESIAN COMPUTATION ; MULTIVARIATE RETURN PERIODS ; SEA-LEVEL RISE ; FLOOD RISK ; MODEL CALIBRATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; UNITED-STATES ; FRAMEWORK ; UNCERTAINTY ; DESIGN |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/28168 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Boise State Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Boise, ID 83725 USA; 2.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA 92697 USA; 3.Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Atmospher Sci, Tucson, AZ USA; 4.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Urban Planning & Publ Policy, Irvine, CA USA; 5.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA 92697 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sadegh, Mojtaba,Moftakhari, Hamed,Gupta, Hoshin V.,et al. Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(11):5470-5480. |
APA | Sadegh, Mojtaba.,Moftakhari, Hamed.,Gupta, Hoshin V..,Ragno, Elisa.,Mazdiyasni, Omid.,...&AghaKouchak, Amir.(2018).Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(11),5470-5480. |
MLA | Sadegh, Mojtaba,et al."Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.11(2018):5470-5480. |
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