GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1038/s41467-020-16834-0
The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 degrees C in the United Kingdom
Christidis, Nikolaos; McCarthy, Mark; Stott, Peter A.
2020-06-30
发表期刊NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
ISSN2041-1723
出版年2020
卷号11期号:1
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England
英文摘要

As European heatwaves become more severe, summers in the United Kingdom (UK) are also getting warmer. The UK record temperature of 38.7 degrees C set in Cambridge in July 2019 prompts the question of whether exceeding 40 degrees C is now within reach. Here, we show how human influence is increasing the likelihood of exceeding 30, 35 and 40 degrees C locally. We utilise observations to relate local to UK mean extremes and apply the resulting relationships to climate model data in a risk-based attribution methodology. We find that temperatures above 35 degrees C are becoming increasingly common in the southeast, while by 2100 many areas in the north are likely to exceed 30 degrees C at least once per decade. Summers which see days above 40 degrees C somewhere in the UK have a return time of 100-300 years at present, but, without mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, this can decrease to 3.5 years by 2100. The United Kingdom has experienced a strong heat wave in 2019 that set a new temperature record for the country of 38.7 degrees C. In this study the authors show that under climate change, local temperatures are increasingly likely to exceed 35 degrees C and 40 degrees C in the next decades and, hence, summers like the one of 2019 become more frequent.


领域地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000546533300001
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ATTRIBUTION ; WEATHER
WOS类目Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/281828
专题资源环境科学
作者单位Met Off, Hadley Ctr, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England
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GB/T 7714
Christidis, Nikolaos,McCarthy, Mark,Stott, Peter A.. The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 degrees C in the United Kingdom[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2020,11(1).
APA Christidis, Nikolaos,McCarthy, Mark,&Stott, Peter A..(2020).The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 degrees C in the United Kingdom.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,11(1).
MLA Christidis, Nikolaos,et al."The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 degrees C in the United Kingdom".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 11.1(2020).
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