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DOI | 10.1038/s41467-020-16834-0 |
The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 degrees C in the United Kingdom | |
Christidis, Nikolaos; McCarthy, Mark; Stott, Peter A. | |
2020-06-30 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
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ISSN | 2041-1723 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 11期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | As European heatwaves become more severe, summers in the United Kingdom (UK) are also getting warmer. The UK record temperature of 38.7 degrees C set in Cambridge in July 2019 prompts the question of whether exceeding 40 degrees C is now within reach. Here, we show how human influence is increasing the likelihood of exceeding 30, 35 and 40 degrees C locally. We utilise observations to relate local to UK mean extremes and apply the resulting relationships to climate model data in a risk-based attribution methodology. We find that temperatures above 35 degrees C are becoming increasingly common in the southeast, while by 2100 many areas in the north are likely to exceed 30 degrees C at least once per decade. Summers which see days above 40 degrees C somewhere in the UK have a return time of 100-300 years at present, but, without mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, this can decrease to 3.5 years by 2100. The United Kingdom has experienced a strong heat wave in 2019 that set a new temperature record for the country of 38.7 degrees C. In this study the authors show that under climate change, local temperatures are increasingly likely to exceed 35 degrees C and 40 degrees C in the next decades and, hence, summers like the one of 2019 become more frequent. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000546533300001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ATTRIBUTION ; WEATHER |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/281828 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Met Off, Hadley Ctr, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christidis, Nikolaos,McCarthy, Mark,Stott, Peter A.. The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 degrees C in the United Kingdom[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2020,11(1). |
APA | Christidis, Nikolaos,McCarthy, Mark,&Stott, Peter A..(2020).The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 degrees C in the United Kingdom.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,11(1). |
MLA | Christidis, Nikolaos,et al."The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 degrees C in the United Kingdom".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 11.1(2020). |
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