Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2055-4 |
Assessing uncertainty of climate change impacts on long-term hydropower generation using the CMIP5 ensemble-the case of Ecuador | |
Carvajal, Pablo E.1; Anandarajah, Gabrial1; Mulugetta, Yacob2; Dessens, Olivier1 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 144期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | This study presents a method to assess the sensitivity of hydropower generation to uncertain water resource availability driven by future climate change. A hydrology-electricity modelling framework was developed and applied to six rivers where 10 hydropower stations operate, which together represent over 85% of Ecuador's installed hydropower capacity. The modelling framework was then forced with bias-corrected output from 40 individual global circulation model experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario. Impacts of changing climate on hydropower resource were quantified for 2071-2100 relative to a baseline period 1971-2000. Results show a wide annual average inflow range from + 277% to - 85% when individual climate experiments are assessed. The analysis also show that hydropower generation in Ecuador is highly uncertain and sensitive to climate change since variations in inflow to hydropower stations would directly result in changes in the expected hydropower potential. Annual hydroelectric power production in Ecuador is found to vary between - 55 and + 39% of the mean historical output when considering future inflow patterns to hydroelectric reservoirs covering one standard deviation of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 climate ensemble. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000411875800007 |
WOS关键词 | WATER-RESOURCES ; GLACIERS ; RUNOFF |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29843 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.UCL, UCL Energy Inst, Cent House 14,Upper Woburn Pl, London WC1H 0NN, England; 2.UCL, Dept Sci Technol Engn & Publ Policy, 36-37 Fitzroy Sq, London W1T 6EY, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Carvajal, Pablo E.,Anandarajah, Gabrial,Mulugetta, Yacob,et al. Assessing uncertainty of climate change impacts on long-term hydropower generation using the CMIP5 ensemble-the case of Ecuador[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,144(4). |
APA | Carvajal, Pablo E.,Anandarajah, Gabrial,Mulugetta, Yacob,&Dessens, Olivier.(2017).Assessing uncertainty of climate change impacts on long-term hydropower generation using the CMIP5 ensemble-the case of Ecuador.CLIMATIC CHANGE,144(4). |
MLA | Carvajal, Pablo E.,et al."Assessing uncertainty of climate change impacts on long-term hydropower generation using the CMIP5 ensemble-the case of Ecuador".CLIMATIC CHANGE 144.4(2017). |
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