Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2267-2 |
An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on rice farmers and markets in Bangladesh | |
Nahar, Ashrafun1; Luckstead, Jeff2; Wailes, Eric J.2; Alam, Mohammad Jahangir3 | |
2018-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 150页码:289-304 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Bangladesh; USA |
英文摘要 | Bangladesh, the sixth largest rice producer in the world, has been identified as high risk from the effects of climate change. Many of the adverse impacts of climate change such as land inundation and changes in weather patterns and CO2 levels will impact the agricultural sector. This study develops a partial-equilibrium multi-regional farm household model of Bangladesh rice and non-rice agricultural markets to quantify the impacts of climate change on consumption, production, prices, and farmers' welfare. The model is calibrated to the Bangladesh rice market using Household Income and Expenditure Survey data. The model is simulated to analyze the impact of land reduction and productivity decline resulting from climate change. The results show that the decline in production in the coastal and northern regions offsets the production increase in the central and eastern regions, and the simulation predicts that total rice production for Bangladesh falls by about 2%. As total rice consumption falls and imports rise, the net effect leads to a rise in the rice price by 5.71% and a decline in farmers' welfare. Sensitivity analysis shows that more- (less-) effective abatement technology could play a key role in mitigating (exacerbating) the price and welfare effects. The model predicts that many farmers in regions directly impacted by climate change could leave farming in search of off-farm work. Thus, the government can ease this transition by promoting urban development to provide more job options and technical training for farmers. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000448034000011 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-LEVEL RISE ; DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES ; FOOD SECURITY ; PRICE STABILIZATION ; ECONOMIC-EVALUATION ; CHANGE ADAPTATION ; SALINITY ; TRADE ; MODEL ; TECHNOLOGIES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29886 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agr Univ, Gazipur, Bangladesh; 2.Univ Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701 USA; 3.Bangladesh Agr Univ, Mymensingh, Bangladesh |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nahar, Ashrafun,Luckstead, Jeff,Wailes, Eric J.,et al. An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on rice farmers and markets in Bangladesh[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,150:289-304. |
APA | Nahar, Ashrafun,Luckstead, Jeff,Wailes, Eric J.,&Alam, Mohammad Jahangir.(2018).An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on rice farmers and markets in Bangladesh.CLIMATIC CHANGE,150,289-304. |
MLA | Nahar, Ashrafun,et al."An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on rice farmers and markets in Bangladesh".CLIMATIC CHANGE 150(2018):289-304. |
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