Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2198-y |
A dual model for emulation of thermosteric and dynamic sea-level change | |
Thomas, Matthew A.; Lin, Ting | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 148页码:311-324 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Future thermosteric and dynamic sea-level changes are often projected by process-based climate models. Emulation of such computationally expensive models helps enable model intercomparison over a range of forcing scenarios and thus enables additional analysis of sea-level rise projection uncertainty. Current emulation methods use linear response functions to estimate global mean sea-level response. Here, we introduce a novel dual model to emulate global mean thermosteric sea-level rise that incorporates short- and long-term responses to climate forcing. This nonlinear response function outperforms existing linear response functions over six illustrative general circulation models and the four representative concentration pathways. To emulate dynamic sea-level projections, we introduce a linear pattern scaling model that relates regional sea-level changes to global mean thermosteric sea-level rise. Pattern scaling is shown to reproduce strongly forced sea-level trends. Our results demonstrate effective emulation of global and regional sea-level rise, which can facilitate the consideration of sea-level rise projection uncertainty critical to the analysis of sea-level rise hazard. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431788500021 |
WOS关键词 | RESPONSE FUNCTIONS ; CMIP5 ; CLIMATE ; PROJECTIONS ; SIMULATIONS ; PATTERN |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29905 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Marquette Univ, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Milwaukee, WI 53233 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thomas, Matthew A.,Lin, Ting. A dual model for emulation of thermosteric and dynamic sea-level change[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,148:311-324. |
APA | Thomas, Matthew A.,&Lin, Ting.(2018).A dual model for emulation of thermosteric and dynamic sea-level change.CLIMATIC CHANGE,148,311-324. |
MLA | Thomas, Matthew A.,et al."A dual model for emulation of thermosteric and dynamic sea-level change".CLIMATIC CHANGE 148(2018):311-324. |
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