资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Assessing regional-scale vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change and variability is vital in securing food and fiber systems, as well as sustaining rural livelihoods. Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners rely on science-based, decision-relevant, and localized information to maintain production, ecological viability, and economic returns. This paper synthesizes the collection of research on the future of agricultural production in the Southwestern United States. A variety of assessment methods indicate the diverse impacts and risks across the Southwest, often related to water availability, which drives adaptive measures in this region. Sector- or species-specific adaptive measures have long been practiced in this region and will continue to be necessary to support agricultural production as a regional enterprise. Diversification of crop selection and income source imparts climate resilience. Building upon biophysical vulnerability through incorporating social and economic factors is critical to future adaptation planning efforts. The persistence and adaptive capacity of agriculture in the water-limited Southwest serves as an instructive example for producers outside the region expecting drier and warmer conditions and may offer solutions to reduce future climate impacts.