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DOI | 10.1007/s10584-016-1705-2 |
Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part I: estimates of historical drought changes | |
Dai, Aiguo1,2; Zhao, Tianbao3 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 144期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | How drought may change in the future are of great concern as global warming continues. In Part I of this study, we examine the uncertainties in estimating recent drought changes. Substantial uncertainties arise in the calculated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) with Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiraiton (PDSI_pm) due to different choices of forcing data (especially for precipitation, solar radiation and wind speed) and the calibration period. After detailed analyses, we recommend using the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) or the Global Precipitation Climatology (GPCP) datasets over other existing land precipitation products due to poor data coverage in the other datasets since the 1990s. We also recommend not to include the years after 1980 in the PDSI calibration period to avoid including the anthropogenic climate change as part of the natural variability used for calibration. Consistent with reported declines in pan evaporation, our calculated potential evapotranspiration (PET) shows negative or small trends since 1950 over the United States, China, and other regions, and no global PET trends from 1950 to 1990. Updated precipitation and streamflow data and the self-calibrated PDSI_pm all show consistent drying during 1950-2012 over most Africa, East and South Asia, southern Europe, eastern Australia, and many parts of the Americas. While these regional drying trends resulted primarily from precipitation changes related to multi-decadal oscillations in Pacific sea surface temperatures, rapid surface warming and associated increases in surface vapor pressure deficit since the 1980s have become an increasingly important cause of widespread drying over land. |
英文关键词 | Drought PDSI Precipitation Historical drought change Uncertainties Streamflow |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000412660800011 |
WOS关键词 | GLOBAL DROUGHT ; WET SPELLS ; CLIMATE ; PRECIPITATION ; 21ST-CENTURY ; VARIABILITY ; PATTERNS ; MOISTURE ; ARIDITY ; CHINA |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30041 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, Albany, NY 12222 USA; 2.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, IAP, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Res East Asia, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dai, Aiguo,Zhao, Tianbao. Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part I: estimates of historical drought changes[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,144(3). |
APA | Dai, Aiguo,&Zhao, Tianbao.(2017).Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part I: estimates of historical drought changes.CLIMATIC CHANGE,144(3). |
MLA | Dai, Aiguo,et al."Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part I: estimates of historical drought changes".CLIMATIC CHANGE 144.3(2017). |
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