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DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9 |
Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change | |
Shepherd, Theodore G.1; Boyd, Emily2; Calel, Raphael A.3,4; Chapman, Sandra C.5,6; Dessai, Suraje7,8; Dima-West, Ioana M.9; Fowler, Hayley J.10; James, Rachel11,12; Maraun, Douglas13; Martius, Olivia14; Senior, Catherine A.15; Sobel, Adam H.16,17; Stainforth, David A.4,5; Tett, Simon F. B.18; Trenberth, Kevin E.19; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.20,21; Watkins, Nicholas W.4,5,6,22; Wilby, Robert L.23; Zenghelis, Dimitri A.4 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 151页码:555-571 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Sweden; USA; South Africa; Austria; Switzerland; Scotland; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a storyline' approach. We define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. No a priori probability of the storyline is assessed; emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved, and the plausibility of those factors. We introduce a typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making by allowing one to work backward from a particular vulnerability or decision point, combining climate change information with other relevant factors to address compound risk and develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing a physical basis for partitioning uncertainty, thereby allowing the use of more credible regional models in a conditioned manner and (iv) exploring the boundaries of plausibility, thereby guarding against false precision and surprise. Storylines also offer a powerful way of linking physical with human aspects of climate change. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000452480700013 |
WOS关键词 | FUTURE CLIMATE ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; FRAMEWORK ; EVENT ; RISK ; ADAPTATION ; MANAGEMENT ; SCIENCE ; EUROPE ; HEAT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30165 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England; 2.Lund Univ, Ctr Sustainabil Studies, S-22100 Lund, Sweden; 3.Georgetown Univ, McCourt Sch Publ Policy, Washington, DC 20057 USA; 4.London Sch Econ, London WC2A 2AE, England; 5.Univ Warwick, Dept Phys, Ctr Fus Space & Astrophys, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England; 6.Boston Univ, Dept Astron, Ctr Space Phys, 725 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA 02215 USA; 7.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Sustainabil Res Inst, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England; 8.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, ESRC Ctr Climate Change Econ & Policy, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England; 9.Willis Re, London EC3M 7DQ, England; 10.Newcastle Univ, Sch Engn, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England; 11.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England; 12.Univ Cape Town, Dept Oceanog, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa; 13.Karl Franzens Univ Graz, Wegener Ctr Climate & Global Change, A-8010 Graz, Austria; 14.Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; 15.Met Off, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England; 16.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY 10027 USA; 17.Columbia Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, New York, NY 10027 USA; 18.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, Midlothian, Scotland; 19.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 20.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands; 21.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands; 22.Open Univ, Fac Sci Technol Engn & Math, Milton Keynes, Bucks, England; 23.Loughborough Univ, Dept Geog, Loughborough LE11 3TU, Leics, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shepherd, Theodore G.,Boyd, Emily,Calel, Raphael A.,et al. Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,151:555-571. |
APA | Shepherd, Theodore G..,Boyd, Emily.,Calel, Raphael A..,Chapman, Sandra C..,Dessai, Suraje.,...&Zenghelis, Dimitri A..(2018).Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change.CLIMATIC CHANGE,151,555-571. |
MLA | Shepherd, Theodore G.,et al."Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change".CLIMATIC CHANGE 151(2018):555-571. |
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