Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.15384 |
Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050 | |
Sadie J. Ryan; Colin J. Carlson; Blanka Tesla; Matthew H. Bonds; Calistus N. Ngonghala; Erin A. Mordecai; Leah R. Johnson; Courtney C. Murdock | |
2020-10-28 | |
发表期刊 | Global Change Biology |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | In the aftermath of the 2015 pandemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), concerns over links between climate change and emerging arboviruses have become more pressing. Given the potential that much of the world might remain at risk from the virus, we used a previously established temperature‐dependent transmission model for ZIKV to project climate change impacts on transmission suitability risk by mid‐century (a generation into the future). Based on these model predictions, in the worst‐case scenario, over 1.3 billion new people could face suitable transmission temperatures for ZIKV by 2050. The next generation will face substantially increased ZIKV transmission temperature suitability in North America and Europe, where naïve populations might be particularly vulnerable. Mitigating climate change even to moderate emissions scenarios could significantly reduce global expansion of climates suitable for ZIKV transmission, potentially protecting around 200 million people. Given these suitability risk projections, we suggest an increased priority on research establishing the immune history of vulnerable populations, modeling when and where the next ZIKV outbreak might occur, evaluating the efficacy of conventional and novel intervention measures, and increasing surveillance efforts to prevent further expansion of ZIKV. |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/301801 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sadie J. Ryan,Colin J. Carlson,Blanka Tesla,et al. Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050[J]. Global Change Biology,2020. |
APA | Sadie J. Ryan.,Colin J. Carlson.,Blanka Tesla.,Matthew H. Bonds.,Calistus N. Ngonghala.,...&Courtney C. Murdock.(2020).Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050.Global Change Biology. |
MLA | Sadie J. Ryan,et al."Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050".Global Change Biology (2020). |
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