资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

For more than three decades, the depleted Rongchang gas reservoir in China’s Sichuan Basin was used for the disposal of unwanted water, which resulted in induced earthquakes, with magnitudes as high as 5.2. After all wells were closed, the frequency of seismic activity was observed to decay following a modified Omori law, and since April 2015, seismic activity again began to increase, and a M 4.9 earthquake occurred on Dec. 27. The results of an ETAS model analysis show that forced seismicity accounted for more than 70% of the total events. For most M ≥ 3.5 earthquakes, including two M ≥ 4 events, the estimated overpressure was lower than the maximum injection pressure. These results, coupled with the fact that post‐injection seismic activity has similar characteristics to seismicity during injection, indicate that the injected overpressure fluid was still the driving factor for post‐injection seismic activity.