Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2173-7 |
The 2010 Pakistan floods in a future climate | |
van der Schrier, G.1; Rasmijn, L. M.1; Barkmeijer, J.1; Sterl, A.1; Hazeleger, W.2,3 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 148页码:205-218 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands |
英文摘要 | The summer 2010 floods hitting Pakistan were the severest on record. Coinciding with these events was the 2010 heatwave over eastern Europe and Russia, which also ranks among the severest ever recorded in the region. Both events were related to an anomalously widespread and intense quasi-stationary anticyclonic circulation anomaly over western Russia which provided favourable conditions, in combination with monsoonal forcing factors, for the Pakistan precipitation events. Here, a data assimilation technique is used which results in a climate model simulation which has its mean upper atmospheric circulation shifted in the direction of the anomalous anticyclonic circulation of summer 2010. This primes the climate model to reproduce, much more frequently than in a climate simulation without this technique, to simulate the conditions which led to the Pakistan 2010 floodings. These experiments are conducted under both present-day and future climatic conditions. In the present-day climate, the main features of the 2010 Pakistan precipitation events are modeled realistically, although the amplitude of the extreme precipitation is underestimated. The simulated future equivalent of the observed extreme precipitation events shows a stronger precipitation over the Bay of Bengal to Kashmir in northern India and northern Pakistan, and from the Arabian Sea to northern Pakistan. In the model context, these precipitation increases are substantial with 50-100% increases in rainfall rates. This implies that the future equivalent of the 2010 Pakistan floodings may have even stronger socio-economic impacts. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431788500014 |
WOS关键词 | EURASIAN SNOW COVER ; SUMMER MONSOON ; MODEL ; SYSTEM ; RAINFALL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30191 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst, De Bilt, Netherlands; 2.Wageningen Univ & Res, Wageningen, Netherlands; 3.Netherlands eSci Ctr, Amsterdam, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | van der Schrier, G.,Rasmijn, L. M.,Barkmeijer, J.,et al. The 2010 Pakistan floods in a future climate[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,148:205-218. |
APA | van der Schrier, G.,Rasmijn, L. M.,Barkmeijer, J.,Sterl, A.,&Hazeleger, W..(2018).The 2010 Pakistan floods in a future climate.CLIMATIC CHANGE,148,205-218. |
MLA | van der Schrier, G.,et al."The 2010 Pakistan floods in a future climate".CLIMATIC CHANGE 148(2018):205-218. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论