Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019WR025861 |
Comparing Flood Projection Approaches Across Hydro‐Climatologically Diverse United States River Basins | |
Katherine E. Schlef; Baptiste Franç; ois; Casey Brown | |
2020-11-20 | |
发表期刊 | Water Resources Research
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出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | The challenge of estimating design flood magnitude under climate change has led to the development of multiple approaches to long‐term flood projection: stationarity, informed‐parameter (comprised of both trend informed and climate informed), and hydrologic simulation. This is the first study to compare these approaches across a large set of hydro‐climatologically diverse basins located throughout the contiguous United States, grouped into distinct clusters based on catchment and flood characteristics. The comparison is achieved using a split‐sample test conducted over the historic period; the climate (specifically, precipitation) informed and hydrologic simulation (specifically, Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model) approaches are forced with observations and downscaled general circulation model (GCM) simulations. The results provide a quantitative perspective on key long‐term flood projection issues. The precipitation informed approach can be informative for projections of regional change; the hydrologic simulation approach can be informative for direction of change for a single basin. When forced with GCM outputs, precipitation informed is both more accurate and more precise than hydrologic simulation, after accounting for model error. For hydrologic simulation, forcing with GCMs will add positive bias for basins in the Rocky Mountains and Southwest, and will add negative bias with large uncertainty across GCMs for basins in the lower Midwest, the South, and the mid‐Atlantic seaboard. The results illustrate the need for continued improvement in long‐term flood projection approaches and for design paradigms incorporating uncertainty. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/304293 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Katherine E. Schlef,Baptiste Franç,ois,等. Comparing Flood Projection Approaches Across Hydro‐Climatologically Diverse United States River Basins[J]. Water Resources Research,2020. |
APA | Katherine E. Schlef,Baptiste Franç,ois,&Casey Brown.(2020).Comparing Flood Projection Approaches Across Hydro‐Climatologically Diverse United States River Basins.Water Resources Research. |
MLA | Katherine E. Schlef,et al."Comparing Flood Projection Approaches Across Hydro‐Climatologically Diverse United States River Basins".Water Resources Research (2020). |
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