资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

We present a statistical method to quantify the contribution of urbanization to precipitation changes during 1958–2017 across the greater Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei metropolitan region in northern China. We find distinct trends in precipitation in the past six decades: decreasing in annual and summer while increasing in other seasons. The spatial patterns of precipitation show discernible terrain-induced characteristics with high values in the buffer zones of plain and mountain areas and low values in the northwestern mountainous regions. Our results indicate that although urbanization has limited impacts on the trends and spatial patterns of precipitation, it has a positive contribution to the changes in precipitation for about 80% of the comparisons conducted, especially in autumn (100%), with the negative contribution being dominant in summer (66.67%). In addition, these results are sensitive to the classifications of urban and rural stations, suggesting that how to classify urban/rural areas is a crucial step to estimate the potential contribution of urbanization to precipitation changes. These findings also support that urbanization can diversify and enhance the variations in precipitation, with urban areas becoming a secondary center along with more increasing or less decreasing trends in precipitation.