Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL091674 |
Early warning of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase transition using complex network analysis | |
Zhenghui Lu; Naiming Yuan; Qing Yang; Zhuguo Ma; Jü; rgen Kurths | |
2021-02-11 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters |
出版年 | 2021 |
英文摘要 | Obtaining an efficient prediction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase transition is a worldwide challenge. Here, we employed the climate network analysis to uncover early warning signals prior to a PDO phase transition. This way an examination of cooperative behavior in the PDO region revealed an enhanced signal that propagated from the western Pacific to the northwest coast of North America. The detection of this signal corresponds very well to the time when the upper ocean heat content in the off‐equatorial northwestern tropical Pacific reaches a threshold, in which case a PDO phase transition may be expected with the arising of the next El Nio/La Nia event. The objectively detected early warning signal successfully forewarned all the six PDO phase transitions from the 1890s to 2000s, and also underpinned the possible PDO phase transition around 2015, which may be triggered by the strong El Nio event in 2015‐2016. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/313859 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhenghui Lu,Naiming Yuan,Qing Yang,et al. Early warning of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase transition using complex network analysis[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2021. |
APA | Zhenghui Lu,Naiming Yuan,Qing Yang,Zhuguo Ma,Jü,&rgen Kurths.(2021).Early warning of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase transition using complex network analysis.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Zhenghui Lu,et al."Early warning of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase transition using complex network analysis".Geophysical Research Letters (2021). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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