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DOI | 10.1002/2017JD027007 |
Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates | |
Nakamura, Jennifer1; Camargo, Suzana J.1; Sobel, Adam H.1,2; Henderson, Naomi1; Emanuel, Kerry A.3; Kumar, Arun4; LaRow, Timothy E.5; Murakami, Hiroyuki6; Roberts, Malcolm J.7; Scoccimarro, Enrico8,9; Vidale, Pier Luigi10; Wang, Hui4; Wehner, Michael F.11; Zhao, Ming6 | |
2017-09-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 122期号:18 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England; Italy |
英文摘要 | Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north-south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000416388000011 |
WOS关键词 | CLUSTER-ANALYSIS ; ENVIRONMENTAL-CONTROL ; PROJECTED CHANGES ; TYPHOON TRACKS ; COUPLED MODEL ; PART I ; CMIP5 ; RESOLUTION ; CIRCULATION ; SIMULATIONS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/32247 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA; 2.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY USA; 3.MIT, Program Atmospheres Oceans & Climate, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 4.NOAA, NWS, NCEP, Climate Predict Ctr, College Pk, MD USA; 5.Verato Inc, Mclean, VA USA; 6.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA; 7.Hadley Ctr, Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England; 8.Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Bologna, Italy; 9.Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; 10.Univ Reading, NCAS Climate, Reading, Berks, England; 11.Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nakamura, Jennifer,Camargo, Suzana J.,Sobel, Adam H.,et al. Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2017,122(18). |
APA | Nakamura, Jennifer.,Camargo, Suzana J..,Sobel, Adam H..,Henderson, Naomi.,Emanuel, Kerry A..,...&Zhao, Ming.(2017).Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,122(18). |
MLA | Nakamura, Jennifer,et al."Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 122.18(2017). |
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